Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties

Joseph Kuria Waitara,John Kihoro,Gregory Kerich,Anne Korir

doi:10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11

Joseph Kuria Waitara, John Kihoro + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11

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Abstract

Oesophageal cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues lining the oesophagus (the muscular tube through which food passes from the throat to the stomach) while Lung cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues of the lung, usually in the cells lining air passages. In this study, Data collected by the Nairobi Cancer Registry (NCR) was used to produce spatial-temporal distribution of oesophageal cancer cases for counties in Kenya. The study revealed, counties where data was available Bomet had highest relative risk of oesophageal cancer, followed by Meru, Nyeri, Embu, Nakuru, Kakamega Nairobi, Mombasa, Kiambu and Machakos counties respectively. The study revealed that smoking and alcohol use were significant risk factors of oesophageal cancer in Kenya. Generation of spatio-temporal maps and identification of the risk factors from various counties with notified oesophageal cancer cases is a major milestone since previous studies focused on specific regions. The multiplicative effect of smoking was observed to be 1.012, indicating that oesophageal cancer is 1.2% higher to those who smoke compared to non-smokers. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was observed to be 1.0346, indicating that oesophageal cancer was 3.5% higher to alcohol users as compared to non-alcohol users. The study findings revealed that, the multiplicative effect of smoking was 1.4021, indicating that lung cancer was 40.21% higher to smokers as compared to non-smokers from the available data. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was 1.3689 indicating that the risk of lung cancer was 36.89% higher to alcohol users compared to non-alcohol users. Clearly, counties where the data was not available the relative risks were relatively low, therefore even though the data was not available in these counties application of spatial-temporal accounting for covariates revealed that there is risk of oesophageal and lung cancer in the counties. To enhance research on oesophageal, lung and other types of cancer in Kenya the National Cancer Registry in collaboration with Counties health departments should work very closely to enhance cancer data collection to facilitate research and to inform the appropriate measures to be implemented to mitigate the increase of cancer cases.

Highlights

Oesophageal cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues lining the esophagus [2]
The multiplicative effect of smoking was observed to be e^β1=1.012, indicating that esophageal cancer is 1.2% higher to those who smoke compared to non-smokers
Other counties had relatively low relative risks which ranged between 0.01-0.08, clearly even though the data was not available in these counties application of spatio-temporal accounting for covariates revealed that there was risk of oesophageal cancer in the counties

Summary

Introduction

Oesophageal cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues lining the esophagus (the muscular tube through which food passes from the throat to the stomach) [2]. According to study findings by Schaafsma et al [18], Ferlay et al [7] the rate of oesophageal cancer in Kenya is 17.6 per 100,000 which is one of the highest incidence in the Africa continent and is the most common male cancer in Eldoret. Hospitalbased studies conducted in Tenwek hospital in western Kenya by Tenge et al [20] revealed that male: female ratio of 1.6:1.12 indicating higher incidence rates among males than females. Parts of East Africa and Southern Africa has high burden oesophageal cancers but the rsiks factors are not fully understood. In South Africa, Tobacco and alcohol have been shown to be clear risk factors [16] but they may not outrightly explain the high rates in East Africa [10]. Kenya is one of a few countries that lie on Africa’s oesophageal cancer corridor, which is a region situated in the geographic area of Joseph Kuria Waitara et al.: Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and

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