Spatial-temporal evolution mechanism and efficiency evaluation of drought resilience system in China

Abstract

The frequent occurrence of drought events poses significant challenges to regional sustainable development. Assessing regional drought resilience and efficiency is beneficial for governments to allocate disaster relief funds effectively and assist regions in enhancing their disaster resilience capabilities. In this study, we construct a “social-economic-environmental-institutional” drought resilience assessment framework to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution mechanism and spatial autocorrelation of drought resilience, explore the main factors influencing the evolution of this spatial pattern and the strength and interaction mechanisms among such influencing factors. And build a model from the perspective of input and output, use the SBM-DEA model to evaluate the efficiency of drought resistance, and reveal the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of drought resistance in different regions. The results show that China's drought resilience over the past 10 years has increased by an average index value of 13.14%, showing an overall increasing trend. The drought resilience level of coastal provinces in eastern China is relatively higher, while the resilience level in the inland northwest region is relatively lower. China's drought resilience has significant positive spatial correlation, the development of resilience is in a relatively stable spatial pattern. The H–H aggregation area is distributed in the southeastern coastal area, while the L-L aggregation area is distributed in western China, and the east-west difference is significant. Environmental indicators, such as annual average rainfall and annual average temperature, are the main factors causing spatial differentiation in drought resilience in the China, and the interaction between influencing factors is greater than the impact of a single factor. The drought resilience efficiency of provinces in the inland northwest and southeastern coastal areas is relatively high, while that of provinces in the southwest and northeast is relatively low. China's drought resilience efficiency still needs to be improved. Our research findings offer insights into the development of drought resilience in China, providing support for understanding disaster risk assessment and sustainable development.