Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Jiuquan City Ecosystem Based on PLUS-InVEST Model

Karst topography comprises a fragile ecological environment with a significant potential for carbon sequestration. It is characterized by severe rocky desertification, particularly in China’s karst fault basin. Therefore, there is a crucial need to scientifically evaluate the variations in carbon storage over time and space in this area to ensure effective land space planning and regional ecological security, especially considering the dual carbon target. Using land use data (1985–2020) from the karst fault basin in Southwest China, the study employed the InVEST model to evaluate temporal and spatial variations in carbon storage. A time span of 35 years was examined, and predictions regarding carbon storage in 2050 were formulated under three different conditions: natural evolution, ecological protection, and cultivated land protection. These predictions were based on natural, social, and economic driving factors. The results revealed a fluctuating downward trend in regards to carbon storage in the study area from 1985 to 2020, with a total decrease of 2.1 × 106 t. After 2000, there has been significant improvement in the dynamic degree of land use for forest land, grassland, and construction land compared to the levels before 2000. Additionally, many land use types with high carbon density transitioned into those with lower carbon density. Spatially, the carbon density in the karst fault basin was higher in the north and lower in the central and southern basins. At the county spatial scale, except for the northern and central parts of the study area, there was a decrease in total carbon storage in the remaining counties. By 2050, under the ecological protection scenario, total carbon storage is projected to increase by approximately 6 × 106 t, whereas under the natural evolution and cultivated land protection scenarios, it is expected to decrease by 2 × 106 t and 3 × 106 t, respectively. Specifically, under the natural evolution scenario, only five counties will experience an increase in carbon storage, while the other counties will witness a decrease. The findings of this study offer a scientific basis for enhancing ecosystem carbon services through land management practices and the control of rocky desertification in the karst fault basin. They can inform decision-making processes regarding carbon sequestration, ecosystem restoration, and sustainable land use planning in the region.

Land use changes are the main cause for the changes of carbon storage, which is of great importance for maintaining regional carbon balance to make multi-scenario projections of future land use change and explore its impacts on carbon storage. In recent years, under the combination of natural factors and policies, with the land use changing significantly, carbon storage of the Weihe River Basin has also changed. Based on the PLUS-InVEST model, we assessed and predicted the spatial and temporal variations of ecosystem carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin and explored the impacts of land-use change. The results showed that land use distribution pattern of the Weihe River Basin did not change much from 2000 to 2020, which was characterized by the decreases of cropland area and the increases of the area of the remaining land use types. The main ways of land use type conversion were cropland to built-up land and inter-conversion of cropland, forest, grassland. Carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2020, with a total increment of 15.31×106 t. The areas with high carbon storage presented the characteristics of "northeast patch-western scatter-central and southern belt", while low carbon storage distributed in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration located in the lower basin. Compared to 2020, carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin in 2030 would increase under the four scenarios. Carbon storage would increase the least under the economic development scenario, and the most under the ecological protection scenario. The variation of carbon storage in spatial distribution would be embodied in the staggered zone of cropland, forest, and grassland in the upper basin. The results could provide data support for land use management decisions and carbon storage enhancement in the Weihe River Basin.

Land use/cover change is the main reason for the variation of ecosystem carbon storage. The study of the impact of land use on carbon storage has certain reference values for realizing high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. In this paper, the InVEST model was used to simulate the variation of carbon storage in the Yellow River Basin in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, and to predict the carbon storage in 2030 in combination with the CA-Markov model, as well as to discuss the impact of land use on carbon storage. The results showed that: (1) The variation trend of carbon storage for different land use types in the Yellow River Basin was different and was mainly manifested as a decrease of cultivated land and unused land, and an increase of forest land, grassland, water, and construction land. The carbon storage in the provincial key development prioritized zone, national development optimized zone, and provincial development optimized zone showed decreasing trends, while the national key development prioritized zone and national major grain producing zone presented a fluctuating downward trend. (2) The ecosystem carbon storage function weakened after 2000, and part of the carbon sink area transformed into a carbon source area. The area with low carbon storage was distributed in the west of the provincial key ecological function zone, and the area with high carbon storage was concentrated in the south and middle of national key ecological function zone and the east of the provincial key ecological function zone. (3) The carbon loss was largest in the urban expansion scenario (UES), followed by the natural development scenario (NDS) and ecological protection scenario (EPS). The carbon storage of different scenarios presented significant positive correlations with land use intensity.

This study aimed to investigate the impact of land use changes on the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon storage from the perspective of territorial spatial planning， using Dali County as a case study. The spatiotemporal characteristics of land use types and carbon storage were analyzed from 1990 to 2020 using the InVEST and PLUS models. Then， the changes of the land use and carbon storage in 2030 were predicted under three scenarios： natural development， ecological protection， and economic development. The results are as follows： ①The land use type of Dali County is mainly cultivated land， accounting for more than 70% of the total area， followed by forest land， grassland， water bodies， construction land， and unused land. From 1990 to 2020， the area of grassland and unused land decreases， while the area of cultivated land， forest land， water bodies， and construction land increase. Notably， the area of construction land experiences the most rapid increase of 78.72%. ② Spatially， the regions with a significant increase in carbon storage are located mainly in the southern sandy areas of Dali County， the regions with a decrease in carbon storage are scattered， and the carbon storage in the Yellow River beach area has a notable general downward trend. Temporally， the carbon storage in Dali County shows an increasing trend from 1990 to 2000. However， with the acceleration of urbanization and the expansion of construction land area during 2000 to 2020， the loss rate of carbon storage increases， and the loss amount reaches 50.78×106 t. ③ Obvious differences of carbon storage in 2030 emerge among the different scenarios. In the ecological protection scenario， carbon storage increases because the protection of forest and grass resources and strict constraints on the expansion of construction land are effectively ensured. In the natural development scenario， less carbon is lost. In the economic development scenario， the significant conversion of high-density carbon agricultural land to low-density carbon construction land leads to the greatest carbon loss. In light of these results， future land use planning in Dali County should focus on enhancing the control and protection of ecological nodes， strictly regulating the addition of new construction land， optimizing land use patterns， improving ecosystem service functions， increasing carbon sequestration efficiency， and promoting coordinated development between the county's economy and environment.

Land use change drives carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding the spatio-temporal varia-tion of land use and carbon storage is important for improving carbon sink capacity and achieving the carbon neutrality goal. With InVEST-PLUS model, we evaluated spatio-temporal variation of land use change and ecosystem carbon storage in Hebei Province, explored their variations from 2000 to 2020, and predicted land use changes and carbon storage in 2040. The results showed that cultivated land, forest, and grassland were dominant vegetation types from 2000 to 2020. The area of cultivated land decreased by 7011.1 km2, and the construction land increased by 7479.6 km2. The conversion of cultivated land to construction land was the predominant form of land transfer. Carbon storage in Hebei decreased by 3.6×107 t from 2000 to 2020, with the conversion of cultivated land and grassland to construction land being the main reason for such rapid decline of carbon storage. Carbon storage was higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast. From 2020 to 2040, under natural development scenario, ecological protection scenario, and economic development scenario, the carbon storage of Hebei Province would increase by 4.0×107, 5.1×107, and 5.9×107 t, respectively. The main carbon pools will still be cultivated land, forest, and grassland. In the future, it would be necessary to protect carbon sequestration resources such as forest and grassland, optimize land use pattern with the goal of reducing carbon emissions, and protect areas with high carbon density to further enhance their carbon sequestration capacity.

Carbon storage in coastal wetlands is related to elevation and how it changes over time

Global climate change and coastal urbanization have significantly impacted the health and carbon storage of coastal zone ecosystems. Investigating the spatial and temporal variations in coastal carbon storage is crucial for developing effective strategies for land management and ecological protection. Current methods for evaluating carbon storage are hindered by insufficient accuracy and data acquisition challenges, necessitating solutions to enhance both reliability and precision. This study aims to assess the variations in carbon storage and annual carbon sequestration in the Jiaozhou Bay coastal zone from 1990 to 2020 and to identify the driving factors by integrating the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) and Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) models with remote sensing data and geographic detector methods. The findings suggest that Jiaozhou Bay has experienced a substantial decrease in carbon storage, declining by 17.4% from 1990 to 2020, and annual carbon sequestration, decreasing by 35.5% from 1990 to 2016, but has stabilized recently. Vegetation cover and water bodies play critical roles in regional carbon storage. Furthermore, the dynamics of carbon storage and land use patterns are significantly influenced by socioeconomic factors, including GDP and population density. A comparison of the InVEST and CASA models demonstrates consistency in their carbon storage and annual carbon sequestration assessments. Combining these models in future assessments can enhance the scientific rigor and accuracy of the research, providing more reliable evidence for ecosystem management and policy making.

Land use change is an important factor affecting the carbon cycle and carbon reserves， and multiple scenario simulation of the impact of regional land use change on carbon reserves can provide decision support for formulating scientific land use policies. Taking the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone as an example， based on the evolution characteristics of land use from 1990 to 2020， the impact of land use change on carbon reserves during the 30 years was estimated using the InVEST model， and the coupling PLUS model was used to predict land use change and its impact on carbon reserves in 2030 under the natural development， urban development， and ecological protection scenarios. The study produced several interesting results： ① During 1990-2020， the land use structure in the research area was mainly cultivated land and forest land， which accounted for more than 86% of the area； cultivated land and grassland decreased； construction land， water area， forest land， and unused land increased； and land use transfer was mainly manifested in the mutual transformation between cultivated land and forest land and the transfer of cultivated land for construction land. ② From 1990 to 2020， the carbon reserves showed a distribution pattern of "middle low， surroundings high" and a change trend of "decrease-increase-decrease." The total accumulation decreased by 9.29×106 t， which was mainly attributable to the transfer of forest land to other land. The carbon reserves of cultivated land and forest land， which are the main sources of carbon reserves in the research area， accounted for about 90% of the total. ③ From 2020 to 2030， the areas of cultivated land， water area， and unused land all declined， the area of grassland increased， forest land increased under only the ecological protection scenario， and construction land expanded significantly under the urban development scenario. ④ Under the scenarios of natural development and urban development， carbon reserves decreased significantly， while under the scenario of ecological protection， carbon reserves increased significantly due to lower transfer probability of cultivated land， grassland， and forest land to construction land.

Considering Daqing City as the research area, the impact of land cover change on carbon storage in the future was discussed, and the hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity were identified. The future land use simulation （FLUS） model was used to simulate the land cover pattern of a natural succession scenario, ecological protection scenario, urban development scenario, and comprehensive development scenario in 2030, and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs （InVEST） model was combined to estimate carbon storage in 2010, 2020, and 2030. Finally, the hot spot analysis tool was used to identify the cold hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity. The results showed the following： ① From 2010 to 2020, the area of cultivated land, water, and artificial surface increased, whereas the area of other land cover types decreased, and the total carbon storage decreased by 8.6×105 t. ② The land cover change of the natural succession scenario and urban development scenario in 2030 was similar to that of 2010-2020, with carbon storage decreasing by 1.16×106 t and 1.20×106 t, respectively. The carbon storage of the comprehensive development scenario decreased by 1.00×106 t compared with that in 2020, and carbon storage of the ecological protection scenario was 5.677 7×108 t, which increased by 2.53×106 t compared with that in 2020. ③ The conversion of grassland and wetland to cultivated land was the main cause of carbon storage loss, and the main contributor of carbon storage in the ecological protection scenarios was wetland. ④ The hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity were mainly located in the wetland area, and the cold spots were mainly distributed in the central part of Daqing City. The carbon sequestration capacity of cultivated land was not significant. According to the research results, to realize the urban transformation of Daqing City, we should insist on returning farmland to forest and grass, increase the intensity of returning moisture, improve the utilization rate of urban land, and increase green infrastructure in the main urban area.

As a fundamental element of global carbon storage, the storage carbon in terrestrial ecosystem is significant for climate change mitigation. Land use/cover change (LUCC) is a main impact element of ecosystems’ carbon storage. Evaluating the relation between land use change and carbon storage is vital for lowering global carbon emissions. Taking Hainan Island as an example, this paper employs the InVEST as well as the CA-Markov models to assess and predict how different land use affects carbon storage in various situations from 2000 to 2020 and from 2030 to 2050 on Hainan Island. The influence factors, together with driving mechanisms of carbon storage spatial distribution are quantitatively analyzed as well in this paper. The results demonstrate that, from 2000 to 2020, Hainan Island’s net increase in built land was 605.49 km2, representing a growth rate of 77.05%. Over the last 20 years, Hainan Island’s carbon storage and density have decreased by 5.90 Tg and 1.75 Mg/hm2, respectively. The sharp rise in built land mainly makes the carbon storage decline. From 2030 to 2050, land use changes on Hainan Island are expected to result in differing degrees of carbon storage loss in various scenarios. In 2050, Hainan Island’s carbon storage will decline by 17.36 Tg in the Natural Development Scenario (NDS), 13.61 Tg in the Farmland Protection Scenario (FPS), and 8.06 Tg in the Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS) compared to 2020. The EPS can efficiently maintain carbon sequestration capability, but it cannot effectively prevent cropland area loss. Regarding the carbon storage’s spatial distribution, Hainan Island generally exhibits a pattern of high carbon storages in the low and middle carbon storages in the surrounding areas. Areas with high value are primarily located in Hainan Island’s central and southern mountainous areas, whereas areas with low value are primarily located in surrounding areas with lower elevations, primarily encompassing built land and cropland. Geographic detection presented the spatial differentiation of carbon storage in Hainan Island is mainly influenced by factors like slope, land use intensity, and DEM, as well as its interaction with other factors is significantly strengthened (p < 0.05). Under the strategic framework of the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” goal and the national ecological civilization pilot zone, it is imperative to carefully consider scenarios for ecological protection and farmland protection, adopt ecological regulation models with spatial differentiation, and implement land use policies to improve ecosystem stability, which will contribute to carbon storage loss reduction and ensure food and ecological security.

To explore the impact of land use change on carbon storage and the driving factors of spatial differentiation of carbon storage in Anhui Province under the strategic goal of "dual carbon" and to predict the land use pattern of Anhui Province in 2035 under different scenarios is theoretically and practically important. The coupling PLUS-InVEST model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of land use pattern and carbon storage in Anhui Province under the scenarios of natural development, ecological protection, cultivated land protection, and ecological cultivated land protection in 2035, and the driving force of spatial differentiation of carbon storage was analyzed by using geographic detectors. The results showed that： ① From 1990 to 2020, the land use pattern of Anhui Province showed a trend of continuous decrease in cultivated land and forest land area and significant expansion of urban area. ② From 1990 to 2020, the carbon storage in Anhui Province decreased by 1.39×107 t, showing a continuous decreasing trend, and the conversion of cultivated land to urban was the major reason for the decrease in carbon storage, accounting for 65.96% of the total carbon storage loss. ③ The explanatory power of elevation on carbon storage was the strongest under single factor detection （q value of 0.185）, and the explanatory power of natural environmental factors on carbon storage spatial differentiation was dominant. ④ In 2035, the carbon storage under different scenarios will be decreasing, and the reduction of inhibited carbon storage under the cultivated land ecological dual protection scenario will be the most significant.

Examining the impact of land use change on carbon storage in Yuxi City holds significant practical importance and provides robust scientific support for the region to address urban climate change， strengthen environmental protection， and achieve the "dual carbon" goals. This study utilized seven sets of land use data from Yuxi City， collected every five years between 1990 and 2020， to quantify the dynamic relationship between land use change and carbon storage. Based on the requirements of the special plan for territorial spatial planning in Yuxi City， the PLUS model was employed to simulate land use patterns in 2030 under four different development scenarios： natural development， economic development， ecological protection， and comprehensive development. The InVEST model was then used to assess the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage under these scenarios， and the Geodetector model was applied to explore the spatial heterogeneity of carbon storage and the driving mechanisms behind it in greater detail. The study produced several important results： ① From a temporal perspective， the most significant forest restoration occurred between 1990 and 1995， and construction land expanded rapidly between 2015 and 2020. In terms of spatial distribution， the most notable land use changes were observed in the eastern part of Yuxi City. Both cultivated land and grassland showed decreasing trends， with cultivated land experiencing a particularly prominent decrease of 176.07 square kilometers， while forest land increased by 81.48 square kilometers. ② Between 1990 and 2020， the carbon storage in Yuxi City first increased and then decreased， from 306.282 7 million tons in 1990， peaking at 307.699 4 million tons in 1995， and then to 305.559 8 million tons in 2020. Among this decrease， the loss of carbon storage due to the reduction of cultivated land accounted for 80% of the total reduction. ③ Compared to 2020， the carbon storage in 2030 decreased under all scenarios， that is， natural development， economic development， ecological protection， and comprehensive development， with carbon storage amounts of 304.831 4 million， 304.538 9 million， 305.504 8 million， and 305.211 0 million tons， respectively. Under the ecological protection scenario， optimizing land use structure and improving land use efficiency can effectively mitigate the threat of urban development to carbon storage loss. ④ NDVI is a key driving factor explaining the spatial differentiation pattern of carbon storage in Yuxi City， with a q-value of 0.338 8. The interaction between NDVI and elevation enhances the explanatory power of each factor on the spatial differentiation of carbon storage. Under the ecological protection scenario， with the continuous expansion of forest land area， carbon storage in the ecosystem can effectively accumulate， positively contributing to a significant increase in carbon storage in Yuxi City.

Under the vision of the ‘dual-carbon’ goal, land-use changes and their impact on carbon stocks are studied,to providing a reference for regional carbon balance. Taking the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone of Guangxi as an example, based on the data on land use and carbon density, the PLUS and InVEST models were applied to analyze the pattern of land use change from 1980 to 2020, simulate the spatial pattern of land use under three scenarios in 2030, and assess the carbon stock and its spatial and temporal change characteristics during the 50 years. The results show that: (1) From 1980 to 2020, the land use type of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone was dominated by forest land, but the construction land continued to expand, and a large number of other land types were occupied. The formation of a changing trend of "one increase, many decreases" in which construction land increases and other land types decrease. (2) The carbon storage in the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone is dominated by forest land, followed by cultivated land. (3) In 2030, there are differences in carbon storage under different development scenarios, and the transformation of land use types related to forest land and construction land dominates the change of carbon storage, and the carbon storage under the natural development scenario and cultivated land protection scenario will decrease to varying degrees, and only the carbon storage will increase under the ecological protection scenario. In 2030, the carbon storage in the ecological protection scenario will be 12.6916 × 108t, an increase of 0.0936 × 108t or 0.7429% compared with 2020. (4) In the past 50 years, the large expansion of construction land in the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone has led to a downward trend in carbon storage, and the low-value areas of carbon storage in this area are mainly distributed in the urban areas of various cities and the coastal areas of "Qinbeifang". Hence, the carbon storage has obvious heterogeneity in spatial distribution, showing the characteristics of "low in the middle and high in the periphery".

Land use change is an important reason for changes in carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Therefore, analyzing the impact of land use change on carbon storage is important for exploring the sustainable development of cities and improving the value of ecosystem services. Taking Changchun City in the northeast of China as the research area, this paper simulates land use patterns under three scenarios up to 2030 using the FLUS model and assesses carbon storage from 2010 to 2030 using the InVEST model. It estimates the impact of land use change on carbon storage under several scenarios in Changchun. The results show that cultivated land plays an important role in carbon storage in Changchun. The transfer of cultivated land to construction land has been the main land use type conversion over the past decade, which has led to most of the carbon storage loss. In the natural growth scenario, the carbon storage would decline further. In the cultivated land protection scenario, meanwhile, this situation would be greatly improved. In the ecological protection scenario, the carbon storage would be increased due to the protection of ecological land. In the future, we should protect existing resources while simultaneously comprehensively improving the economic, social, and ecological benefits of the land.

The relationship between land use change and regional carbon storage is closely linked. Understanding how land use changes affect regional carbon storage is crucial for maintaining the carbon balance of ecosystems. This study integrated the advantages of the PLUS model, the InVEST model, and the optimal parameter-based geographic detector (OPGD) models to analyze the spatiotemporal variation in land use patterns and carbon storage in the Fuhe River Basin under three scenarios in 2030, and analyze the driving forces of the spatial differentiation of carbon storage. The results show that the following: (1) From 1980 to 2020, the areas of water and construction land in the Fuhe River Basin increased by 28.08 km² and 217.65 km², respectively, while the areas of cultivated land, woodland, grassland, and unused land decreased by 115.33 km², 112.79 km², 88.79 km², and 1.36 km², respectively. (2) Between 1980 and 2020, the total carbon storage in the Fuhe River Basin showed a decreasing trend, with a reduction of 20.39 × 105 t. The main drivers of this decline were the reduction in woodland area and the expansion of construction land. (3) By 2030, carbon storage is projected to continue decreasing under all three scenarios, with the ecological protection scenario showing the most pronounced mitigating effect on the reduction of carbon storage. (4) The spatial differentiation of carbon storage in the Fuhe River Basin is influenced by various factors, including land use intensity, NDVI, elevation, and slope, with land use intensity having the strongest explanatory power, reaching 0.24. This study offers policymakers valuable insights for optimizing ecosystem carbon storage and provides essential guidance for achieving the “dual carbon” goals.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-025-14518-7.