Spatial-temporal effects of urban housing prices on job location choice of college graduates: Evidence from urban China

Abstract

Attracting college graduates is crucial for the local government to (re)drive socioeconomic development. Location choice is subject to a variety of factors and the influence of housing prices is usually considered. Soaring housing prices would have a dual effect on the willingness to work and live in a particular city. Using multinomial logit models based on the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey (CLDS), this study examines the spatial-temporal influence of housing prices on college graduates' job city selection. It concludes that while housing costs in the workplace can have an attractive effect, these intentions to work in large cities will wane as long as housing costs remain high. Before the tipping point of housing prices, cities with higher housing prices, which are considered to offer better employment and public service prospects, might draw considerable inflows of graduates. After exceeding the tipping point, rising housing prices gradually stifled college students' influx. Hometown housing prices serve as an essential benchmark for college graduates' city choices. This study emphasizes the critical need for housing price stabilization and inclusive housing policies such as the provision of affordable housing and subsidized talent housing to attract and retain talent groups.