Spatial-temporal dynamics of meteorological and soil moisture drought on the Tibetan Plateau: Trend, response, and propagation process

Abstract

Meteorological drought signals trigger different types of droughts by propagating in the water and energy cycle processes. The understanding of the propagation process from meteorological to soil moisture drought is not clear on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). We used the standardized precipitation index (SPEI) and the standardized soil moisture index (SSMI) to represent meteorological and soil moisture drought. By using Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, wavelet analysis, run theory, Moran's I and drought migration model, we evaluated the trend of SPEI and SSMI on the TP from 1980 to 2018, analyzed the response relationship, explored the temporal (lag time (LT), propagation rate, duration (DD) and severity (DS)) and spatial (spatial autocorrelation, trajectory, direction and distance) properties of drought propagation, and discussed the potential factors. The result indicated that SPEI intensified at winter and annual scales, SSMI mitigated at all time scales. Both of them showed a consistent dry trend in the southeastern TP. In the time dimension, SSMI usually lagged behind SPEI by about 2–3 months, and the LT increased from summer to winter. The LT tended to be shorter in summer in regions characterized by humid and semi-humid climates, meadows and shrublands, and seasonally frozen ground. Propagation rates were greater in the southeast than northwest. After propagation, DD and DS became weaker in winter (45 % and 52 % of regions decreased, respectively) and stronger in summer (80 % and 76 % of regions increased, respectively). In the spatial dimension, the LT of adjacent regions is closely related, dominated by High - High values and Low-Low values. SSMI had shorter migration trajectories and slower migration rates than SPEI. In addition, the direction of drought propagation was predominantly northwest. For the first time, this study has provided insights into the spatial and temporal propagation of meteorological drought to soil moisture drought on the TP and provides a theoretical basis for understanding drought propagation and predicting soil moisture drought.