Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of etiologically positive pulmonary tuberculosis in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2021

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the spatial-temporal distribution of etiologically positive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) at the county (city, district) unit in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2021 to provide evidence for the implementation and adjustment of prevention and control strategies of PTB in Jiangsu Province. Methods: The registration data of etiologically positive PTB patients in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2021 were collected from the Tuberculosis Management Information System in the China Information System of Disease Control and Prevention. Data on the permanent population were from the statistical yearbook of each county (city, district) in Jiangsu Province. Geoda 1.18.0 software was used to analyze the global and local spatial autocorrelation and explore the spatial clustering. SaTScan 10.1 software was used to analyze the spatial-temporal clusters, and ArcGIS 10.7 software was used to visualize the spatial-temporal clusters. Results: A total of 128 240 etiological positive PTB cases were registered in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2021, with an average annual registration rate of 13.99/100 000. The registration rate showed an overall upward trend (trend χ2=63.49, P<0.001) after 2017, and the etiologically positive rate showed an overall upward trend (trend χ2=3 710.86, P<0.001). The annual Moran's I values ranged from 0.107 to 0.343, which showed a spatial clustering distribution. The results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there were "high-high" clustering areas in Jiangsu Province each year, showing a dynamic distribution, and most of the areas were distributed in the central and southern regions of Jiangsu Province, with the largest number (7) in 2015 and the smallest number (1) in 2011. A total of 4 spatial-temporal clustering areas were explored by spatial-temporal scanning analysis (all P<0.001), among which the first-level clustering area covered 3 counties (cities, districts), namely Changshu, Taicang, and Xiangcheng District of Suzhou, and the clustering time was from 2011 to 2015. The secondary clustering areas covered 24 counties (cities, districts), mainly covering Jiangsu's central and northern regions, such as Huai'an, Suqian, and Yancheng. The third-level clustering areas covered 26 counties (cities, districts); the fourth-level clustering area was the Gaochun District of Nanjing, with the clustering period from 2017 to 2021. Conclusions: From 2011 to 2021, the etiologically positive PTB registration rate at the county (city, district) level in Jiangsu Province had obvious spatial-temporal clustering characteristics. The clustering areas included the northern areas with relatively backward economies and the southern areas with better economic development. Multiple measures should be taken to prevent and control PTB according to the specific situation in different regions.