Spatial-temporal distribution and hazard assessment of maize lodging in a synergistic disaster environment

Abstract

Maize, a major food crop, holds significant edible and industrial value. Lodging poses a threat to maize yields, often resulting in reduced or even zero grain production due to the prevailing growth conditions. The precise evaluation of contributing factors on maize lodging, such as adverse environmental conditions, remains limited.This study employs the M-K test, Geodetector analysis, and Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve to examine the spatial-temporal distribution of maize lodging incidents and establishes a comprehensive assessment model for spring maize lodging hazard evaluation, considering environmental variables. The findings reveal the following: (1) High wind-type lodging events (≥ 10.8 m/s by universal definition, ≥ 10 m/s in this study) occurred frequently from the jointing-tasseling stage. Wind and rain-type lodging events occurred more frequently from the milk to maturity stages compared to other phases. (2) Maize lodging hazard during the jointing stage is prominent in western Jilin province and tends to expand towards central Jilin province as the growth stages progress. (3) Topographical, soil, and climatic factors all exhibited explanatory power regarding lodging incidents, with climatic factors demonstrating a substantial contribution when combined with the other two variables. (4) The accuracy test of the ROC curve for the comprehensive model surpasses the 0.05 significant confidence threshold, indicating a strong fit. The model developed in this study enables the evaluation of maize lodging hazards during the late growth stage, enhancing the reliability of lodging disaster risk assessments.