Spatial-Temporal Changes in Ecological Risk of Land use Before and After Grain-for-Green Policy in Zhengning County, Gansu Province

Abstract

Abstract: The Grain—for—Green Policy aims to convert cropland to grassland and forest across western China, and evaluating ecological risk is essential to its implementation. Because few recent studies have focused on eco—risk changes of land use in the areas affected by significant policies, this paper took Zhengning County in Gansu Province as our focal area, and studied spatial-temporal changes in ecological risk before and after policy implementation. Based on indices of landscape fragmentation and ecosystem service value, an ecological risk assessment method using ArcGIS and Fragstats was done. The regional gravity center model and land spatial distribution model were also used to enrich the quantitative description of divisional eco—risk and its spatial—temporal variation in the county. Results showed that the implementation of the policy has contributed to an overall reduction in ecological risk in Zhengning County, with a divisional degree order reduction following the pattern: eastern Zhengning >...