Abstract

Spatial Markov chain can effectively explore the spatial evolution trend of housing price under the influence of lag factor. This paper uses spatial autocorrelation and spatial Markov to study 353 second-hand houses in Hefei. The results show that (1) the housing price of Hefei urban area presents a situation of “two points and one side,” the high housing price is concentrated in the south and southwest of the urban area, and the price level gradually weakens from south to north, and the housing development shows a north-south differentiation. (2) There is a significant spatial autocorrelation between second-hand housing prices in Hefei. The “high-high” residential price clusters are mainly distributed in Shushan District and Binhu New Area, while the “low-low” residential price clusters are mostly in Yaohai district and its surrounding areas. The number of “low-high” agglomeration and “high-low” agglomeration is small, and the degree of change is not big. (3) Under the influence of different neighborhood environments, the housing prices in urban Area of Hefei show club convergence overall. At the same time, under the short-term influence of the policy, the housing prices of low level and middle and low level are promoted in the same neighborhood environment, while the housing prices of high level and middle and high level are negatively affected.

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