Abstract
BackgroundMalaria remains a public health concern in Hubei Province despite the significant decrease in malaria incidence over the past decades. Furthermore, history reveals that malaria transmission is unstable and prone to local outbreaks in Hubei Province. Thus, understanding spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal distribution of malaria is needed for the effective control and elimination of this disease in Hubei Province.MethodsAnnual malaria incidence at the county level was calculated using the malaria cases reported from 2004 to 2011 in Hubei Province. Geographical information system (GIS) and spatial scan statistic method were used to identify spatial clusters of malaria cases at the county level. Pure retrospective temporal analysis scanning was performed to detect the temporal clusters of malaria cases with high rates using the discrete Poisson model. The space-time cluster was detected with high rates through the retrospective space-time analysis scanning using the discrete Poisson model.ResultsThe overall malaria incidence decreased to a low level from 2004 to 2011. The purely spatial cluster of malaria cases from 2004 to 2011 showed that the disease was not randomly distributed in the study area. A total of 11 high-risk counties were determined through Local Moran’s I analysis from 2004 to 2011. The method of spatial scan statistics identified different 11 significant spatial clusters between 2004 and 2011. The space-time clustering analysis determined that the most likely cluster included 13 counties, and the time frame was from April 2004 to November 2007.ConclusionsThe GIS application and scan statistical technique can provide means to detect spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal distribution of malaria, as well as to identify malaria high-risk areas. This study could be helpful in prioritizing resource assignment in high-risk areas for future malaria control and elimination.
Highlights
Malaria remains a public health concern in Hubei Province despite the significant decrease in malaria incidence over the past decades
The results showed significant global spatial autocorrelations of malaria incidence from 2004 to 2011 (Table 1), indicating that the malaria spatial distribution still followed a clustered pattern
The spatial cluster analysis indicated that the malaria incidence significantly decreased, and the median annual malaria incidence of high-risk counties decreased from 58.81/100,000 individuals in 2004 to 0.79/100,000 individuals in 2011
Summary
Malaria remains a public health concern in Hubei Province despite the significant decrease in malaria incidence over the past decades. History reveals that malaria transmission is unstable and prone to local outbreaks in Hubei Province. Understanding spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal distribution of malaria is needed for the effective control and elimination of this disease in Hubei Province. There were about 207 million malaria cases worldwide, 627 000 malaria deaths are estimated to have occurred in 2012 [1]. Malaria is one of the major parasitic diseases that is widely distributed in China [2], with both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax historically prevalent [3]. Despite national control efforts against malaria and international support in the past decades, 26,825 malaria cases were reported from 2009 to 2011 in China [4,5,6]. Two peak epidemics occurred in 1954 and 1970, with annual incidences as high as 2,098/100,000 population and 6,024/100,000 population, respectively
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
