Abstract

With the Covid-19 outbreak, academic studies have been started to calculate the economic effects of the outbreak. Since it is not possible to determine when epidemics/pandemics (or large magnitude earthquakes, etc.) occur, their negative economic effects cannot be precisely predicted. Decreasing consumption and supply at the same time, breaking the supply chain, closing businesses and increasing unemployment are rapidly disrupting economic conditions. The measures are mostly related to issues at the macroeconomic level. If a full curfew is imposed throughout the country, economists are working on how it will have an impact on the economy of the whole country. However, the analysis of the effects at the regional level is discussed secondarily. The aim of this study is to simulate the effects of an economic lock-down that might take place in two important mega cities such as Istanbul and Izmir. As a result of this analysis made using spatial econometrics tools; in the event of a lockdown (or earthquake) in mega cities such as İstanbul and/or İzmir, there will be major economic difficulties that will spread wave by wave to the neighbouring cities and then eventually to the whole country.

Highlights

  • Covid-19 pandemic is affecting all the countries in the world

  • If a full curfew is imposed throughout the country, economists are working on how it will have an impact on the economy of the whole country

  • The outbreak began in December 2019, it was declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a pandemic on March 11, 2020

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Summary

Introduction

Covid-19 pandemic is affecting all the countries in the world. WHO (2020) declared that as of May 01, 2020, the total number of confirmed globally cases of COVID-19 reached 3,175,207, whereas the total number of deaths was 224,172.With the emergence of the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan (China) and its rapid spread to throughout the world, governments in all countries implemented curfews and took measures to restrict economic activities. Covid-19 pandemic is affecting all the countries in the world. WHO (2020) declared that as of May 01, 2020, the total number of confirmed globally cases of COVID-19 reached 3,175,207, whereas the total number of deaths was 224,172. With the emergence of the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan (China) and its rapid spread to throughout the world, governments in all countries implemented curfews and took measures to restrict economic activities. The outbreak began in December 2019, it was declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a pandemic on March 11, 2020. After the first case was seen in Turkey on March 10, 2020, the measures were increased. Outbreak in Turkey was more effective in metropolitan cities where the population density is high. The data of the Ministry of Health show that İstanbul lead the way

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