Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to different background seismic activity and temporal earthquake occurrence models

Abstract

Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to different models with respect to background seismic activity and earthquake occurrence in time is investigated. For the contribution of background seismic activity to seismic hazard, background area source with uniform seismicity and spatially smoothed seismicity models are taken into consideration. For the contribution of faults, through characteristic earthquakes, both the memoryless Poisson and the time dependent renewal models are utilized. A case study, involving the assessment of seismic hazard for the Bursa province in Turkey, is conducted in order to examine quantitatively the influence of these models on seismic hazard results. The spatial variation of the difference in Peak Ground Acceleration ( PGA) values obtained from these different models is presented in the form of difference maps for return periods of 475 and 2475 years. Best estimate seismic hazard maps for PGA and Spectral Accelerations (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are obtained by using the logic tree method.