Abstract
ABSTRACT The objective of this study is to evaluate spatial and temporal variations in rainfall aggressiveness in southern Brazil. A total of 181 rain gauge stations located in southern Brazil with rainfall time series from 1976 to 2015 were used. Seasonal and annual rainfall aggressiveness values measured according to the Modified Fournier Index (MFI) were analyzed. The trends in the data series were evaluated using the Mann-Kendall test at a level of significance of 5%. Maps on spatial and seasonal variations in rainfall aggressiveness were prepared. The percentage of rain gauge stations with significant decreasing trends, significant increasing trends, and no significant trends in rainfall aggressiveness between years was 3.3%, 7.7%, and 89.0%, respectively. Moreover, 90% of stations had no significant trends between seasons. There were seasonal differences in rainfall aggressiveness between the three southern states in Brazil caused by rainfall factors. Rainfall aggressiveness was comparatively higher in the west of Santa Catarina and southwest of Parana due to the rains originating from the mesoscale convective systems predominant in autumn, and in the north coast of Santa Catarina and east coast of Parana due to convective and orographic precipitations predominant in the summer.
Highlights
Increased soil erosion is recognized as a significant environmental problem, causing soil loss, degradation of productive areas, and damage to urban areas
More than 90% of the stations had no significant trends in rainfall erosivity (RE) between seasons
The percentage of significant trends was comparatively higher (7.2%) in the summer and lower (2.8%) in winter. These significant trends can be attributed to reasons other than climate change, including alterations in station location and natural climate variability
Summary
Increased soil erosion is recognized as a significant environmental problem, causing soil loss, degradation of productive areas, and damage to urban areas. In Brazil, soil degradation is caused primarily by poor soil management and use, presence of fragile soils, and a pluviometric regime characterized by heavy rainfall, leading to water erosion. Modeling is a technique widely used in water erosion studies and allows performing simulations using different scenarios and obtaining rapid responses compared to experimental research. In this respect, several mathematical models were developed to estimate soil loss due to erosion, including the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), which estimates rainfall erosivity (RE) using the RE index
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