SPATIAL REGRESSION MODEL OF URBAN WALKABILITY UNDER THE 15-MINUTE CITY APPROACH

Abstract

The 15-minute city aims to decentralize the urban economic poles to provide local services to its entire population. The objective of this research is to geographically determine the economic poles in an intermediate Latin American city and evaluate their geospatial coverage. This research develops a geographic accessibility model to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of the economic poles, considering the socioeconomic stratum of households in Manizales (Colombia). Moreover, we apply a spatial regression model of pedestrian trips. Results show that proximity to urban economic poles is directly correlate with pedestrian trips. In Manizales, only 35.8% of the population reaches its closest economic pole within a 15-minute walk; moreover, accessibility inequities mainly affecting lower-income families were detected. The 15-minute city approach poses a high potential to contribute to urban spatial justice to the extent that urban planners facilitate the growth of economic activities and services in neighborhoods, with special attention to the less privileged.