Abstract
The COVID-19 vaccines are limited in supply which requires vaccination by priority. This study proposes a spatial priority-based vaccine rollout strategy for Bangladesh. Demographic, economic and vulnerability, and spatial connectivity – these four types of factors are considered for identifying the spatial priority. The spatial priority is calculated and mapped using a GIS-based analytic hierarchy process. Our findings suggest that both demographic and economic factors are keys to the spatial priority of vaccine rollout. Secondly, spatial connectivity is an essential component for defining spatial priority due to the transmissibility of COVID-19. A total of 12 out of 64 districts were found high-priority followed by 22 medium-priorities for vaccine rollout. The proposed strategy by no means suggests ending mass vaccination by descending age groups but an alternative against limited vaccine supply. The spatial priority of the vaccine rollout strategy proposed in this study might help to curb down COVID-19 transmission and to keep the economy moving. The inclusion of granular data and contextual factors can significantly improve the spatial priority identification which can have wider applications for other infectious and transmittable diseases and beyond.
Highlights
Vaccination against COVID-19 is a precondition for normalizing daily life and opening up economic activities
A total of 12 districts were identified as high-priority for vaccine rollout followed by 22 districts as medium priority
In a limited vaccine supply scenario, we have proposed an alternative spatial priority-based vaccine rollout strategy by weighing a combination of ten demographic, economic and vulnerability factors, and an additional spatial factor, for 64 districts of Bangladesh
Summary
Vaccination against COVID-19 is a precondition for normalizing daily life and opening up economic activities. The rising number of COVID-19 cases globally – potentially the third wave, mostly by the Delta variant – from March 2021 onwards is a renewed concern for the world, especially in the worst affected countries like the UK, the USA, Indonesia, India and Brazil. Curbing the pandemic through vaccination is a challenge because the availability of vaccines varies across countries, especially the low-income countries are lagging considerably [1, 2]. The number of available vaccines is in short supply, and vaccine rollout is prioritized in every country. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) in the US recommended vaccine rollout with the goal in mind “to decrease death and serious illness due to COVID-19 as much as possible, to maintain the functioning of society and to reduce the extra burden on people already facing disparities.”. The UK approach to vaccine rollout is similar to the USA with added categories of ethnic minorities, obese and deprived communities [4]
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