Spatial prediction of spring locations in data poor region of Central Himalayas

Abstract

Abstract This research explores the methods for understanding groundwater springs distribution and occurrence using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Machine Learning technique in data poor areas of the Central Himalayas. The objectives of this study are to analyse the distribution of natural springs, evaluate three random forest models for its predictability and establish a model for the prediction of occurrence of springs. This study evaluates the primary causal factors for occurrence of springs. The data used in this study consists of 20 parameters based on topography, geology, lithology, hydrology and land use as causal factors, whereas 621 spring location and discharge (n = 621) measured during 2014–2016 and 815 non-spring locations (generated by GIS tool) use as supporting evidence to train (80%) and test (20%) the prediction model. Results show that the Bootstrap method is comparatively reliable (92% accuracy) over Boosted tree (64% accuracy) and Decision tree (74% accuracy) methods to classify and predict the occurrence of springs in the watershed. Bootstrap Forest shows the high Prediction rate for True Positive (82% actual spring predicted as a spring) and True Negative (89% actual non-spring predicted as non-spring), and the model seems consistent in both responses. This model was then applied to an independent dataset to predict spring location estimates with 75% accuracy. Therefore, spatial statistical methods prove efficient at predicting spring occurrence in data poor regions.