Spatial prediction based on Third Law of Geography

Abstract

ABSTRACTCurrent methods of spatial prediction are based on either the First Law of Geography or the statistical principle or the combination of these two. The Second Law of Geography contributes to the revision of these methods so they are adaptive to local conditions but at the cost of increasing demand for samples. This paper presents a new thinking about spatial prediction based on the Third Law of Geography which focuses on the similarity of geographic configuration of locations. Under the Third Law of Geography, spatial prediction can be made on the basis of the similarity of geographic configurations between a sample and a prediction point. This allows the representativeness of a single sample to be used in prediction. A case study in predicting spatial variation of soil organic matter content was used to compare the spatial prediction based the Third Law of Geography with those based on the First Law and the statistical principle. It is concluded that spatial prediction based on the Third Law of Geography does not require samples to be over certain size nor to be of a particular spatial distribution to achieve a high quality prediction. The prediction uncertainty associated with spatial prediction based on the Third Law of Geography is more indicative to quality of the prediction, thus more effective in allocating error reduction efforts. These properties make spatial prediction based on the Third Law of Geography more suitable for prediction over large and complex geographic areas.