Spatial patterns of ENSO's interannual influences on lilacs vary with time and periodicity

Abstract

The influences of solar activity and large-scale climate modes (e.g. the El Niño/Southern Oscillation — ‘ENSO’) have been identified in many geophysical processes. However, few studies have attempted to investigate the frequency characteristics and corresponding spatial patterns of the interannual influence of either solar activity or large-scale climate modes on phenology. In this study, the influences of solar activity (represented by sunspot number ‘SSN’) and ENSO on the first leaf and bloom dates of the common lilac and cloned lilac in the United States were analyzed for time series spanning ≥33years using the wavelet coherence method. The spatial patterns in the influence of ENSO on the first leaf and bloom dates were investigated for different times and periodicities, using time series of ≥20years. The combined influences of solar activity and ENSO on the first leaf and bloom dates of lilacs were identified for most of the stations with records spanning ≥33years. In the 11-year band, both increasing solar activity (SSN) and El Niño caused delays in the first leaf and bloom events of the cloned lilac during the 1980s in the northeastern United States. The frequency characteristics and the spatial patterns of the influence of ENSO on the first leaf day and first bloom day were essentially consistent, and such spatial patterns vary with time and periodicity.