Spatial pattern of climate change and farmer–herder conflict vulnerabilities in Nigeria

Abstract

Climate change is recognised among the drivers of conflicts in developing regions but the growing studies on climate change–violent conflict nexus in Africa have paid little attention to the spatial dimension of the farmer–herder conflict in Nigeria. Existing studies have not explored the issue of climate change vulnerability regarding the farmer–herder conflict. Therefore, this paper contributes to the literature by examining the spatial dimension of the relationship between climate change and farmer–herder conflict vulnerabilities in Nigeria. Data were obtained from various secondary sources and the analyses were based on climate security vulnerability model. The study shows that the farmer–herder conflict is widespread across Nigeria but with significant spatial clustering and the hotspot is in the Middle Belt, especially in Benue State. The result of the regression model indicates that climate change vulnerability is the best predictor of the farmer–herder conflict in Nigeria but the effect is negative. This result implies that regions more vulnerability to climate change experience lesser farmer–herder conflict. The paper demonstrates that climate change could influence herders’ migration pattern as the herders now move southward due to deteriorating environmental conditions partly caused by changing climate in the northern regions. Thus, it argues climate change is not necessarily the cause of the conflict because the change in the pattern of herder’s migration does not automatically lead to climate change causing conflict. Migration is important but the mechanism establishing the migration–conflict nexus has to be explained by taking cognisance of identity differentials between herding groups and local communities.