Abstract
This study aims to assess spatial patterns of Malawian agricultural productivity trends to elucidate the influence of weather and edaphic properties on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) seasonal time series data over a decade (2006–2017). Spatially-located positive trends in the time series that can’t otherwise be accounted for are considered as evidence of farmer management and agricultural intensification. A second set of data provides further insights, using spatial distribution of farmer reported maize yield, inorganic and organic inputs use, and farmer reported soil quality information from the Malawi Integrated Household Survey (IHS3) and (IHS4), implemented between 2010–2011 and 2016–2017, respectively. Overall, remote-sensing identified areas of intensifying agriculture as not fully explained by biophysical drivers. Further, productivity trends for maize crop across Malawi show a decreasing trend over a decade (2006–2017). This is consistent with survey data, as national farmer reported yields showed low yields across Malawi, where 61% (2010–11) and 69% (2016–17) reported yields as being less than 1000 Kilograms/Hectare. Yields were markedly low in the southern region of Malawi, similar to remote sensing observations. Our generalized models provide contextual information for stakeholders on sustainability of productivity and can assist in targeting resources in needed areas. More in-depth research would improve detection of drivers of agricultural variability.
Highlights
Recent studies show that shrinking farm sizes are associated with increasing population pressures, farm productivity trends in these areas are influenced by socio-economic drivers and institutional policies, resulting in a wide range of agricultural pathways, from extensification to intensification [6,7]
We identify locations of potentially intensifying agriculture, we query for pixels where increasing productivity is not driven by good climate and suitable soils from the 40 unique realization layer from step one above
There are few biophysically based longitudinal studies that consider productivity over time, and we know of no other that addresses this in smallholder agriculture in Africa
Summary
Agriculture systems offer multi-functional services that support and regulate natural services, as well as provide income, food, fodder, and fuel [1,2]. In many low latitude countries, climate change, population pressures, and socio-economic inequity have posed challenges to food production [5]. Sub-Saharan Africa is a vulnerable region for agriculture production. The predominant smallholder agriculture systems are rain-fed with limited use of inputs [6]. Recent studies show that shrinking farm sizes are associated with increasing population pressures, farm productivity trends in these areas are influenced by socio-economic drivers and institutional policies, resulting in a wide range of agricultural pathways, from extensification to intensification [6,7]. Past studies show that food production can be improved through sustainable intensification practices [8]
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