Spatial pattern analysis of fire events in Central India – A case study

Abstract

The impact of fires on environment can have adverse effects. To fully understand the synoptic behaviour of fire events, information on the spatial distributions and their pattern are highly important. In this study, we used 9-year (1997–2005) integrated fire count datasets derived from Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) satellite to geographically map the distribution of fire events in the Madhya Pradesh state, central India. We then used robust spatial metrics to test the spatial pattern of fire events against the hypothesis of complete spatial randomness (CSR). Specifically, we used the index of dispersion, Green's index, in addition to nearest neighbour statistic for testing CSR. Also, quantification of clustering is carried out using Ripley's K-function. To spatially map the fire events, we used Kernel density estimation that relies on bi-variate probability density functions. Results from using different spatial pattern metrics and nearest neighbour statistics suggested relatively high clustering of fire events in the study area. In addition, results from Ripley's K-function suggested the fire events to be clustered at a lag-distance of ∼60 mile radius. By converting original fire ignition locations that are based on historical records to continuous density surfaces, the probability of fire events could be mapped effectively using kernel density estimation. As each fire event is the result of certain spatial process including biophysical and anthropogenic attributes, results from this study can provide useful information on fire management at a local district level. Also, the analysis presented in this study illustrates how spatial patterns in the point datasets can be quantified using different dispersion indices, clustering and density estimation techniques.