Spatial partial identity model reveals low densities of leopard and spotted hyaena in a miombo woodland

R S Davis,W O Mgoola,E L Stone,R W Yarnell,L K Gentle,A Uzal

doi:10.1111/jzo.12838

R S Davis, W O Mgoola + Show 4 more

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https://doi.org/10.1111/jzo.12838

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Abstract

AbstractDecline in global carnivore populations has led to increased demand for assessment of carnivore densities in understudied habitats. Spatial capture–recapture (SCR) is used increasingly to estimate species densities, where individuals are often identified from their unique pelage patterns. However, uncertainty in bilateral individual identification can lead to the omission of capture data and reduce the precision of results. The recent development of the two‐flank spatial partial identity model (SPIM) offers a cost‐effective approach, which can reduce uncertainty in individual identity assignment and provide robust density estimates. We conducted camera trap surveys annually between 2016 and 2018 in Kasungu National Park, Malawi, a primary miombo woodland and a habitat lacking baseline data on carnivore densities. We used SPIM to estimate density for leopard (Panthera pardus) and spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta) and compared estimates with conventional SCR methods. Density estimates were low across survey years, when compared to estimates from sub‐Saharan Africa, for both leopard (1.9 ± 0.19 sd adults/100 km2) and spotted hyaena (1.15 ± 0.42 sd adults/100 km2). Estimates from SPIM improved precision compared with analytical alternatives. Lion (Panthera leo) and wild dog (Lycaon pictus) were absent from the 2016 survey, but lone dispersers were recorded in 2017 and 2018, and both species appear limited to transient individuals from within the wider transfrontier conservation area. Low densities may reflect low carrying capacity in miombo woodlands or be a result of reduced prey availability from intensive poaching. We provide the first leopard density estimates from Malawi and a miombo woodland habitat, whilst demonstrating that SPIM is beneficial for density estimation in surveys where only one camera trap per location is deployed. The low density of large carnivores requires urgent management to reduce the loss of the carnivore guild in Kasungu National Park and across the wider transfrontier landscape.

Highlights

Density estimation is an important tool for monitoring wildlife populations, which is critical for effective conservation management (Sollmann et al, 2011; Balme et al, 2019)
The study was conducted in Kasungu National Park (KNP), Malawi, a 2,316 km2 legally protected area that encompasses a large part of the Kasungu Plateau
KNP forms part of the 30, 621 km2 Malawi Zambia Transfrontier Conservation Area (MZTFCA), which is of importance for biodiversity conservation in the Central Zambezian Miombo Woodland Ecoregion

Summary

Introduction

Density estimation is an important tool for monitoring wildlife populations, which is critical for effective conservation management (Sollmann et al, 2011; Balme et al, 2019). Economic and social importance of carnivores, basic data on population density and distribution are lacking across large areas of their geographic range (Ripple et al, 2014; Bauer et al, 2015; Jacobson et al, 2016). This is true in Africa, despite well-reported declines across the continent (Ripple et al, 2014; Di Minin et al, 2016; Wolf & Ripple, 2016). Journal of Zoology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Zoological Society of London

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