Abstract

In the past years, there has been an increasing number of applications of functional climate networks to studying the spatio-temporal organization of heavy rainfall events or similar types of extreme behavior in some climate variable of interest. Nearly all existing studies have employed the concept of event synchronization (ES) to statistically measure similarity in the timing of events at different grid points. Recently, it has been pointed out that this measure can however lead to biases in the presence of events that are heavily clustered in time. Here, we present an analysis of the effects of event declustering on the resulting functional climate network properties describing spatio-temporal patterns of heavy rainfall events during the South American monsoon season based on ES and a conceptually similar method, event coincidence analysis (ECA). As examples for widely employed local (per-node) network characteristics of different type, we study the degree, local clustering coefficient and average link distance patterns, as well as their mutual interdependency, for three different values of the link density. Our results demonstrate that the link density can markedly affect the resulting spatial patterns. Specifically, we find the qualitative inversion of the degree pattern with rising link density in one of the studied settings. To our best knowledge, such crossover behavior has not been described before in event synchrony based networks. In addition, declustering relieves differences between ES and ECA based network properties in some measures while not in others. This underlines the need for a careful choice of the methodological settings in functional climate network studies of extreme events and associated interpretation of the obtained results, especially when higher-order network properties are considered.

Highlights

  • Rainfall patterns [14], predicting the Indian summer monsoon onset [15], and forecasting flood events in the Central Andes [9], to mention only a few examples

  • To study the differences between the functional network characteristics for the South American monsoon system (SAMS) obtained with the two event synchrony measures event synchronization (ES) and event coincidence analysis (ECA) without and with temporal declustering, along with the influence of varying the link density ρ, we consider an upper limit for the dynamic coincidence interval of the ES and choose a corresponding value of the ECA parameter as ΔT = 3 days

  • We have studied the characteristics of functional climate networks which have been obtained by quantifying event synchrony in terms of two different similarity measures, event synchronization (ES) and event coincidence analysis (ECA)

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Summary

Introduction

Despite the success of the method, several recent studies [9,16,17,18] have pointed out a methodological concern related to ES that can arise when working with events exhibiting marked clustering in time While this potential drawback may have considerable consequences for the application of ES in functional climate networks, it does not render previous analysis results invalid, yet calls for some careful re-examination. We have discussed the impact of the declustering scheme to avoid paired extreme events on the results for the associated network representations based on the corrected and uncorrected versions of both event synchrony measures This discussion has focused exclusively on the pernode degree patterns of the resulting networks as the probably simplest possible complex network characteristic, leaving aside the consideration of possibly distinct effects on higher-order structural as well as spatial network properties [18]. We close our work by summarizing the main findings of our analysis

Functional climate networks and their characteristics
Event synchronization
Event coincidence analysis
Effects of event clustering on synchrony measures
Previous work on event synchrony based functional climate networks
Case study: the South American monsoon system
Node degree
Average link distance
Local clustering coefficient
Node properties in different networks: role of the pairing coefficient
Statistical associations between different node properties
Conclusions
Full Text
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