Abstract
Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites.
Highlights
There are more than 85,000 dams in China
The most detailed data observed in the study were the inundation depth of 18 points (Figure 2) in the flood event that occurred on August 1, 2008
Developing a framework for the analysis of spatial multicriteria flood risk that incorporates economic, social and environmental dimensions is crucial for decision making for dam management, especially in urban areas
Summary
There are more than 85,000 dams in China. Most were built during the period between the 1950s and the 1970s, and an increasing proportion are approaching or exceeding their designed lifespans [1]. Developing a framework for flood-risk analysis is crucial for decision making in the management of aging dams. Decision making for water-management scenarios regarding flood risk involves multiple criteria, including economic, social and environmental criteria [12,13]. There are few studies that have used spatial MCDA in the field of flood-risk management and analysis. These studies were not completely consistent with MCDA theory, or they had objectives different from aging-dam management. Based on spatial MCDA theory, the research discussed here first introduces a general framework for the spatial analysis of changes in the multicriteria flood risk of aging-dam-management scenarios; the framework is applied to a case study
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