Spatial Multi-Criteria Based Analysis to Assess Dynamics and Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems to Global Changes: Case of Maamora Forest-Morocco

Abstract

Maamora forest is of high importance both to its surrounding local population and Morocco as a whole, thanks to the products and services that it provides. In fact, it was the largest one stand cork oak forest in the world until beginning of the 20th century. However, since 1951, this forest has been subject to significant dynamics, characterized by the replacement of cork oak by pine, eucalyptus and acacia plantations. This replacement has been for long time motivated by the failure in cork oak regeneration. Assuming that the consideration of vulnerability would guarantee more success in the regeneration programs, this study consisted of analyzing vegetation dynamics prior to studying the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to global changes. The study confirmed the importance of dynamics in Maamora forest, and pointed to the fact that vulnerability was more marked in continental or eastern parts of the forest and that ecosystems are expected to become more vulnerable in the future. In fact, for 53% of the forest area presenting a low vulnerability in 2010, only 11% would remain with low vulnerability at horizon 2045 with climatic scenario RCP 4.5 whereas all the forest would be moderately to highly vulnerable considering the scenario RCP 8.5 in 2045, or for both scenarios at horizon 2070. These results helped suggest to forest managers to promptly proceed with the regeneration of cork oak stands in the westernmost blocs (A, B and C), as well as judiciously proceed with regeneration in the continental blocs (D and E).