Spatial multi-criteria analysis for prioritising forest management zones to prevent large forest fires in Catalonia (NE Spain)

Abstract

Large forest fires are one of the most common environmental issues in the Mediterranean region. In this study, we defined a set of indicators and criteria based on available spatial data to assess and prioritize management zones for preventing large forest fires in Catalonia (NE Spain). In total, 22 indicators were defined and grouped into 5 criteria. The process involved geospatial modelling using a Geographical Information System (GIS) and the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) analysis. The conducted MAUT analysis resulted in the development of rules for a more standardized assessment of priority management areas. This assessment is based on participatory evaluation and introduces a utility-function-based hierarchical spatial model. Within the model, each of the 5 criteria contains relevant information, including fuel hazard, potential fire behaviour, fire extinction accessibility, valuable resources at risk, and historical fire data, serving as the foundation for a comprehensive analysis of fire prevention measures. During the assessment, two distinct sets of weights were applied: one based on expert evaluation and another using equal weights. These weights describe the relative importance of the indicators within each criterion in the assessment of fire prevention measures. Our results reveal noticeable differences between the two applied approaches. In general terms, management priority levels showcase certain spatial aggregation patterns and spatial polarization characteristics. Our study underscores the importance of participatory planning for prioritizing forest management areas to reduce fire impacts and presents a methodological framework that facilitates such spatial assessments, utilizing tools that combine expert knowledge and scientific expertise. Therefore, the main focus of this study is not on the obtained results, but on the novel methodological framework used, which consists in combining geospatial modelling with MAUT and the participatory workshops for generating the utility rules. This framework allows participation of stakeholders which at the same time enlarges credibility and acceptance of the methodology and results.