Spatial Models of Adjusted Precipitation for Canada at Varying Time Scales

Abstract

AbstractThis study presents spatial models (i.e., thin-plate spatially continuous spline surfaces) of adjusted precipitation for Canada at daily, pentad (5 day), and monthly time scales from 1900 to 2015. The input data include manual observations from 3346 stations that were adjusted previously to correct for snow water equivalent (SWE) conversion and various gauge-related issues. In addition to the 42 331 models for daily total precipitation and 1392 monthly total precipitation models, 8395 pentad models were developed for the first time, depicting mean precipitation for 73 pentads annually. For much of Canada, mapped precipitation values from this study were higher than those from the corresponding unadjusted models (i.e., models fitted to the unadjusted data), reflecting predominantly the effects of the adjustments to the input data. Error estimates compared favorably to the corresponding unadjusted models. For example, root generalized cross-validation (GCV) estimate (a measure of predictive error) at the daily time scale was 3.6 mm on average for the 1960–2003 period as compared with 3.7 mm for the unadjusted models over the same period. There was a dry bias in the predictions relative to recorded values of between 1% and 6.7% of the average precipitations amounts for all time scales. Mean absolute predictive errors of the daily, pentad, and monthly models were 2.5 mm (52.7%), 0.9 mm (37.4%), and 11.2 mm (19.3%), respectively. In general, the model skill was closely tied to the density of the station network. The current adjusted models are available in grid form at ~2–10-km resolutions.