Spatial modelling of shallow landslide susceptibility: a study from the southern Western Ghats region of Kerala, India.

Abstract

ABSTRACT The study was undertaken to produce the landslide susceptibility maps by using Dempster–Shafer, Bayesian probability and logistic regression methods for the southern Western Ghats, Kerala, India. A landslide inventory database of 82 landslides is prepared and used for landslide susceptibility modelling. Twelve landslide conditioning factors including lithology, geomorphological features, slope angle, soil texture, distance from stream, distance from road, distance from lineaments, land use/land cover, slope curvature, rainfall, topographic wetness index and relative relief are extracted from the spatial database and used for modelling. Multi-collinearity among the independent variables were tested and landslide susceptibility maps are constructed. The constructed models were validated with sensitivity, specificity, classification accuracy, ROC-AUC, root mean square error (RMSE) and kappa index. The Bayesian probability model obtained highest ROC-AUC (0.833), sensitivity (0.870), specificity (0.800) and kappa index (0.667) with least RMSE (0.4550) in validation phase. In addition, the study reveals that the agricultural areas have 10°–40° slopes falling on the denudational structural hills are extremely susceptible to landslide occurrence with extended influence from distance from roads, distance from streams and soil texture. The predicted model is trustworthy for future land use planning in the southern Western Ghats to mitigate the risk from landslide hazard.