Spatial modelling of rheumatoid arthritis in Turkey by geographic information systems (GIS)

Abstract

We described the recent spatial distribution of rheumatoid arthritis in Turkey and assessed the role of environmental variables in this distribution. We developed an observed rheumatoid arthritis (RA) incidence grid map by using georeferenced rheumatoid arthritis case data (2011) from the centres of 81 provinces and the kriging method with a spherical variogram model in geographic information systems (GIS). We also modelled rheumatoid arthritis incidence in GIS by using complementary spatial database including the grid map layers of 14 environmental variables of Turkey. We conducted principle component analysis and multiple regression to investigate the relationships among variables and develop a model, respectively. The produced model was run in GIS to obtain a predicted (model) RA map. We tested the reliability of the model map by residual statistics and found the model map dependable. Observed and model incidence maps revealed the geographic distribution of rheumatoid arthritis cases in Turkey. The mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, water vapour pressure, elevation, potential evapotranspiration, latitude, distance to seas, sunshine fraction, precipitation, longitude and aspect variables were found to have significant impacts on rheumatoid arthritis. Consequently, the model incidence map established a good background to predict rheumatoid arthritis cases following environmental changes.