Spatial modeling of visceral leishmaniasis in Iran from 2010 to 2018

Abstract

Kala-Azar is the most lethal type of leishmaniasis, sporadic in most parts of Iran and prevalent in some provinces. Using the Geographical Information System (GIS) and satellite data analysis, we intended to assess the disease's incidence in Iran. Methods: Using GIS, data received from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education in Tehran, Iran, and other associated institutions between 2010 and 2018 were evaluated. The disease's geographical distribution maps were then constructed, and the disease's hotspots in Iran were identified using spatial analysis using ArcGIS10.5 software. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis in ArcGIS10.5 was used to link disease-influencing variables such as temperature, relative humidity, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and incidence of visceral leishmaniasis. Linear regression analysis, SPSS 21 software descriptive statistics, and chi-square test were used to analyze the data. Results: This study revealed that the provinces of Ardabil, East Azarbaijan, North Khorasan, and Fars were the hot spots of VL. The provinces of Ardabil, East Azarbaijan, North Khorasan, Fars, Bushehr, Semnan, Sistan, Baluchistan, Esfahan, Chaharmahal Bakhtiari, Qom, Golestan, and Kerman had the highest correlation between temperature, vegetation density, and the incidence of Kala Azar, as determined by geographical weighted regression analysis.