Spatial modeling of survival and residency and application to the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship program

Abstract

Broad-scale bird-ringing programs are a core component of national and international avian monitoring and research efforts. Despite rich spatial structure in data from these programs, little attention has been paid to spatial modeling of demographic rates. Here we implemented a Bayesian analysis of a hierarchical capture–recapture model to provide spatially explicit (2° blocks) and year-specific estimates of adult apparent survival (hereafter survival) and residency probabilities for Common Yellowthroat Geothlypis trichas, a bird species commonly captured as part of the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program in North America. The model was based on a transient Cormack–Jolly–Seber model. We modeled spatial dependence in survival and residency with an intrinsic conditional autoregressive model and modeled capture probability with a random block-level effect. We modeled sex-effects on survival and residency probability, as well as on two nuisance parameters, capture probability and the probability of predetermining a bird to be a resident (based on multiple within-season captures). Inclusion of sex effects in the model illustrated how missing data are easily accommodated within the modeling framework. We found little evidence of temporal variation in survival or residency. Males tended to have higher and less variable survival and residency probabilities than females. Capture probability and probability of predetermining residency were higher for males than for females. We found broad-scale spatial patterns in survival and residency. Spatial variation was higher for residency than for survival. Although the residency parameter in our model applies to the subset of the population that are newly ringed birds, clear spatial pattern and high spatial variation suggests that this parameter has important ecological relevance. Further development and application of hierarchical capture-recapture models to data from bird-ringing programs provides the opportunity to more thoroughly investigate spatial and temporal pattern in population processes and inform conservation.