Spatial Model of Settlement Expansion and its Suitability to the Landscapes in Singkawang City, West Kalimantan Province

Abstract

Expansion of settlement is part of a change that happens in a land cover that occurs in a city, changes in the land cover itself occur due to a development process that happens dynamically. Singkawang City has experienced land cover changes, in 2014-2015 Singkawang City have decreased the farming area by 5.33% and a population growth of 2.67%, and from the projection of data, Singkawang’s Population will increase by 22.14% from 2015 to 2035. The purpose of this study aims to analyze the spatial pattern of settlement expansion that occurred in Singkawang city, and by using Cellular Automata Markov Chains (CAMC) it could identify the condition of settlement in Singkawang City in 2032 by model projection. This method assumes that each existing cell will represent a unique land cover and will affect each other's surrounding cells after the model have been made, the model will be overlaid with the Singkawang City landscape suitability model using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) method. The results show that the calibrated data can be used to predict settlement expansion by 2032 and suitable landscape conditions will support the current existing expansion. Afterwards, settleme nt areas that are currently expanding will always be affected by geographical and development factors in the region. In the end, it is necessary to analyze between the model that has been developed with the Regional urban plan of Singkawang City to see the availability of space for the construction of settlements and buildings in a sustainable manner.