Spatial model of foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in an endemic area of Thailand

Thanicha Chanchaidechachai,Mart C.M De Jong,Egil A.J Fischer

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2021.105468

Thanicha Chanchaidechachai, Mart C.M De Jong + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2021.105468

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Abstract

Foot-and-mouth disease (FDM) is a disease of cloven-hoofed animals with high costs in animal welfare and animal production. Up to now, transmission between farms in FMD-endemic areas has been given little attention. Between farm transmission can be quantified by distance independent transmission parameters and a spatial transmission kernel indicating the rate of transmission of an infected farm to susceptible farms depending on the distance. The spatial transmission kernel and distance-independent transmission parameters were estimated from data of an FMD outbreak in Lamphaya Klang subdistrict in Thailand between 2016 and 2017. The spatial between-farm transmission rate in Lamphaya Klang subdistrict was higher compared with the spatial between-farm transmission rate from FMDV in epidemic areas. The result can be explained by the larger size of the within-farm outbreak in the endemic area due to no culling. The inclusion of distance-independent transmission parameters improved the model fit, which suggests the presence of transmission sources from outside the area and spread within the area independent of the distance between farms. The remaining distance-dependent transmission was mainly local and could be due to over-the-fence transmission or other forms of contact between nearby farms. Farm size on the kernel positively affects the transmission rate, by increasing both infectivity and susceptibility with increasing farm size. The results showed that both distance-dependent transmission and distance-independent transmission were contributed to FMDV transmission in Lamphaya Klang outbreak. These transmission parameters help to gain knowledge about FMD transmission dynamic in the endemic area.

Highlights

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an infectious disease in clovenhoofed animals
Saraburi province has the highest density of dairy cattle; it is a good representation of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) outbreak in a high-density cattle area
The transmission kernel of FMD outbreak in the endemic area of Lamphaya Klang subdistrict 2016 with distance independent param eters and function of farm size (1) was compared with the transmission kernels of FMDV outbreak in the epidemic area of the Netherlands 2001 (Boender et al, 2010) and that of the FMDV outbreak in the epidemic area of Japan 2010 (Hayama et al, 2013) (Fig. 4)

Summary

Introduction

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an infectious disease in clovenhoofed animals. The loss of the agricultural sector was about 3.2 billion euros and additional costs to other sectors, such as tourism, with the sum of expenditure of about 2.7–3.2 billion euro (Bouma et al, 2003; Thompson et al, 2002). This outbreak trig gered the inquiry into FMDV outbreak management. It is the first time that the mathematical models were introduced to manage the outbreak instead of empirical ’tried and tested’ policies (Haydon et al, 2004)

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