Spatial mismatch and the attribution analysis of carbon storage demand and supply in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Abstract

Regional carbon storage disparity between demand side and supply side is a noteworthy issue for achieving carbon neutrality. For better effective carbon budget management and ecological protection, it is imperative to clarify the mismatch patterns of carbon storage demand and supply as well as the underlying key drivers. From the perspective of ecosystem services, this study conducted in-depth analysis on the spatial mismatch and drivers of carbon storage demand and supply in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The hot spot analysis results visually showed a distinct spatial mismatch characteristic between carbon storage service demand and supply both in 2000 and 2017. This characteristic was further quantified by a spatial mismatch index, suggesting an increasing spatial heterogeneity in the mismatch patterns. Additionally, the factor detection result from Geodetector model indicated that land use and socio-economic factors were the dominant drivers affecting the spatial mismatch patterns of carbon storage demand and supply. To determine the specific contribution of the drivers, K-means++ algorithm was used for zoning and a spatial decomposition analysis was further applied. The results suggested the county-level differences of spatial mismatch were mostly due to the between-group differences, which were primarily promoted by urban expansion and partly restrained by population agglomeration. As for the attribution analysis for the within-group differences, the drivers basically performed differently in each group. Based on these results, this study proposed to break down administrative divisions and implement hierarchical carbon budget control strategies.