Spatial microsimulation modeling for residential energy demand of England in an uncertain future

Abstract

High quality infrastructure is crucial to economic success and the sustainability of society. Infrastructures for services, such as transport, energy, and water supply, also have long lead times, and therefore require effective long-term planning. In this paper, we report on work undertaken as part of the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium to construct long-term models of demographic change which can help to inform infrastructure planning for transport, energy, and water as well as IT and waste. A set of demographic microsimulation models (MSM), which are spatially disaggregate to the geography of UK Local Authorities, provides a high level of detail for understanding the drivers of changing patterns of demand. However, although robust forecasting models are required to support projections based on the notion of ‘predict-and-provide,’ the potential for behavioral adaptation is also an important consideration in this context. In this paper, we therefore establish a framework for linkage of a MSM of household composition, with behavior relating to the consumption of energy. We will investigate variations in household energy consumption within and between different household groups. An appropriate range of household types will be defined through the application of decision trees to consumption data from a detailed survey produced by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change. From this, analysis conclusions will be drawn about the impact of changing demographics at both household and individual level, and about the potential effect of behavioral adjustments for different household groups.