Spatial Microsimulation for Regional Analysis of Marine Related Employment

Stephen Hynes,Cathal O'Donoghue,Jenny O'Leary,Ryan Burger

doi:10.15351/2373-8456.1149

Abstract

This paper presents a modelling framework that facilitates marine policy impact assessment at a scale that is below the national level. The spatial microsimulation approach provides a regional level of analysis not generally possible when dealing with ocean economy statistics that are often even difficult to compile at a national level and offers a powerful modelling tool for maritime spatial planning. The spatial microsimulation model is used to profile the spatial distribution of marine related employment in Ireland. It is then used to carry out a micro-level regional assessment of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic restrictions on the distribution of employment in the Irish ocean economy. The results demonstrate that many of those made unemployed in the ocean economy during the first lock down were outside the main urban centers, particularly in the case of marine tourism and leisure and the marine natural resource based industries. The paper argues that the use of such spatial microsimulation approaches can facilitate a more evidence based policy response to an economic shock, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, in terms of industry and regional specific supports and can also inform more effective marine spatial planning.

Highlights

There are a wide range of methodological frameworks and techniques for policy evaluation and socio-economic impact assessment
On completion of the linkages outlined in the methodology section the synthetic population in the Simulation Model of the Irish Local Economy (SMILE) model contains marine industry employment related identifiers for all individuals specified as being in the ocean economy
The aggregate figures match up to the totals by marine industry from the national ocean economy statistics from Socio-Economic Marine Research Unit (SEMRU) (2019). This is achieved by design given the data produced by the SMILE uses the employment figures presented in the ocean economy report as an aggregate constraint in the simulation process for each of the marine industries

Summary

Introduction

There are a wide range of methodological frameworks and techniques for policy evaluation and socio-economic impact assessment. These include input-output approaches, social accounting matrix–Leontief models, computable general and partial equilibrium modelling techniques and micro-simulation models. In order to evaluate such policies, it is necessary to understand the nature and the operation of the marine sector at a macro level and to evaluate the likely impact of these policies on marine activity at the local level. Morrissey (2017, p125) argues that “policy analysis in the marine sector is better suited to a modelling framework, which emphasizes the heterogeneity of the sector at the micro-level rather than aggregated macro-level processes”

Methods

Results

Conclusion