Spatial Mapping of Diphtheria Vulnerability Level in East Java, Indonesia, using Analytical Hierarchy Process – Natural Break Classification

Abstract

Diphtheria is a serious infectious disease induced by the Corynebacterium Diphtheriae bacteria and often causes outbreaks (extraordinary events) in various regions. Based on data from the Ministry of Health, East Java is the biggest benefactor to diphtheria cases in Indonesia. Diphtheria cases in East Java tend to increase, especially in 2018 there were 753 diphtheria cases in 38 districts. Efforts made to prevent, treat, and control diphtheria outbreaks by the government are to analyze the level of susceptibility to diphtheria. This paper proposes a new approach to analyze the level of diphtheria susceptibility using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and natural breaks classification in East Java Province, Indonesia. AHP method is used to obtain diphtheria susceptibility values based on seven criteria, such as the number of sufferers, number of deaths, DPT 1, DPT 2, DPT 3 immunization, population density, and humidity. Natural break classification is used to classify the vulnerability values from AHP into three levels of vulnerability, consisting of low, medium, and high. The results of the grouping are displayed in the form of spatial mapping in the form of a web-based geographic information system (web-GIS) on the determination of the diphtheria vulnerability level using the AHP-natural breaks classification. The GVF evaluation for 2016, 2017, and 2018 are respectively 0.66, 0.67, and 0.65 (more than 0.5), which means that the proposed method achieved accurate and significant classification. Spatial-temporal analysis for 2013-2018 also achieves accurate and significant with a GVF value of 0.77. The spatial-temporal analysis can predict the high potential for vulnerability.