Spatial Extent as a more sensitive amyloid biomarker for early stages of Alzheimer’s disease

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundDespite considerable advances in beta amyloid (Aβ)‐PET imaging over the last decade, the standard approach of estimating the average neocortical Aβ burden remains largely unchanged. However, as research and clinical trials increasingly shift earlier in the disease process, measures of how far Aβ has spread throughout the cortex (spatial extent) may prove more sensitive than average neocortical magnitude for detecting and quantifying early Aβ deposits and their association with future tau proliferation and cognitive decline.MethodClinically‐normal individuals (n = 214) were included from the Harvard Aging Brain Study with longitudinal PIB‐PET (2‐4 scans, median = 4.7±2.7 years) and annual cognitive data (median = 5.2±2 years), as well as a subset (n = 181) with flortaucipir (FTP)‐PET. Spatial extent (EXT) was computed as the number of cortical ROIs (n = 62, Desikan atlas) above their ROI‐specific threshold for Aβ positivity. EXT was compared to a traditional mean neocortical DVR using logistic growth modeling. Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve analyses evaluated EXT’s ability to identify baseline PIB‐ individuals (<1.19DVR/24CL) who progressed to PIB+ at 3‐year follow‐up. Linear Mixed Effects (LME) modeling assessed baseline EXT (or DVR) as a predictor of increasing inferior temporal tau (IT FTP SUVR) and cognitive decline on the Preclinical Alzheimer’s Cognitive Composite (PACC).ResultEXT begins rising below the neocortical DVR threshold (Figure1A), reaching a maximal growth rate of 14 ROIs per 0.1 DVR increase (∼10CL) and plateauing as full cortical EXT is achieved starting at ∼1.5DVR/68CL. A 3‐ROI EXT threshold predicts progression from PIB‐ to PIB+ in 3 years (AUC = .97, SE = .82,SP = .97), outperforming neocortical DVR (AUC = .92, SE = .65,SP = .94, Figure1B). EXT provides a stronger biomarker of Aβ change than DVR (lower coefficient of variation, Figure2) across the Aβ continuum due to its low variance, even after EXT has plateaued. Baseline EXT is also a stronger predictor of increases in IT FTP SUVR (Figure 3A, η2 EXT = .25, η2 DVR = .20) and PACC decline (Figure3B, η2 EXT = .28, η2 DVR = .22).ConclusionBy describing the spread of Aβ throughout the cortex rather than average neocortical Aβ burden, spatial extent provides a more sensitive measure of Aβ at early, preclinical stages of AD that may improve design of AD prevention trials and open new avenues for research into AD pathogenesis.