Spatial evolution and influencing factors of water-town settlements in Southern China: evidence from 942 villages in Zhongshan City

Abstract

ABSTRACT Zhongshan, a city characterized by its profound historical heritage and distinctive rural civilization, has been consistently influenced by traditional agricultural practices throughout its history. This research conducts an in-depth exploration of Zhongshan’s unique rural spaces, systematically examining the evolutionary trends and determinants of Zhongshan’s water-town settlements across different historical epochs through the application of multidimensional spatial analysis techniques. The results indicate that these settlements exhibited cohesive spatial distribution characteristics across five historical periods. Notably, there was a significant clustering effect during the Ming and Qing dynasties, while Before the Qing dynasty, the spatial distribution of the settlements presented a pattern with multiple core areas coexisting. After the Qing dynasty, the spatial layout of these principal core areas stabilized and gradually diffused to surrounding areas, forming a balanced and continuous distribution pattern. Throughout the study period, the spatial pattern of the water-town settlements exhibited characteristics of five primary core areas and several secondary core areas. Concurrently, the centroid of the water-town settlements consistently shifted southeastward. When examining the intensity of influence on spatial evolution, the study found that socio-economic (q = 0.345) and accessibility factors (q = 0.356) exert a greater impact on the spatial distribution of rural settlements than do natural environmental factors (q = 0.136). However, the interaction between natural environmental factors and socio-economic and accessibility factors provides greater explanatory power than the interactions within natural factors alone. This suggests that in a specific socio-economic context, the impact of the natural environment on water-town settlements is enhanced. Furthermore, multivariate linear regression analysis demonstrates that the rural population, regional economic status, proximity to urban centers, and the distribution of water bodies positively influence the spatial evolution of water-town settlements.