Spatial ensemble modeling for predicting the potential distribution of Lymantria dispar asiatica (Lepidoptera: Erebidae: Lymantriinae) in South Korea.

Abstract

The spongy moth, Lymantria dispar, is a pest that damages various tree species throughout North America and Eurasia, has recently emerged in South Korea, threatening local forests and landscapes. The establishment of effective countermeasures against this species' outbreak requires predicting its potential distribution with climate change. In this study, we used species distribution models (CLIMEX and MaxEnt) to predict the potential distribution of the spongy moth and identify areas at risk of exposure to a sustained occurrence of the pest by constructing an ensemble map that simultaneously projected the outcomes of the two models. The results showed that the spongy moth could be distributed over the entire country under the current climate, but the number of suitable areas would decrease under a climate change scenario. This study is expected to provide basic data that can predict areas requiring intensive control and monitoring in advance with methodologically improved modeling technique.