Abstract
Tangerang Selatan is a city with the highest economic and population growth in Banten Province which makes the built-up land have high and rapid growth so that it can reduce the land carrying capacity of the city. This causes the predictions on the land carrying capacity need to be done so that the status of land carrying capacity can be detected before declining. The aim of this study is to produce a spatial dynamics model of land carrying capacity in Tangerang Selatan City. This study uses population data of 2008-2018, Landsat 5 TM (2008) images, and Landsat 8 OLI images (2013 and 2018). The land carrying capacity is predicted from 2008-2100 using the system dynamics model method based on the relationship between land requirements based on population growth and land availability based on built-up land, which then converted to spatial to see the spatial distribution with spatial dynamics model method. Research shows that in 2026 the land carrying capacity in Tangerang Selatan City has reached 30% and in 2056 the land carrying capacity has been exhausted.
Highlights
Changes in land use are a result of interactions between humans and land [1]
Spatial Dynamics is a mixed method between System Dynamics and Geographic Information System (GIS) and is the right way to explain the relationship between the population, the built-up area and the land carrying capacity in the future [6]
The validity of model performance to gain confidence that the model performance appropriate with the performance of real system is to compare between the model output and the empirical data, do the statistical test to see the deviation with Average Mean Error (AME) that is the deviation accepted is
Summary
Changes in land use are a result of interactions between humans and land [1]. High land use change in an area, shows the increasing human needs in the region [2]. High economic development and population growth tend to encourage changes in land use as a form of urbanization and industrialization [12]. South Tangerang City according to the City Planning in 2011 had open space of 46.53% [13], which according to Ministry of Publik Works Regulation Number 05/PRT/M/2008, the minimum area of open space is 30% of the total area It aims to preserve the carrying capacity of existing land and as a form of sustainable development. That the future development of land carrying capacity in the City of South Tangerang must be planned and predicted using a spatial dynamics model so as not to exceed a minimum area of 30%.
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