Spatial dynamic simulation of important cash crops based on phenology with Scutellaria baicalensis Georgi as an example

Abstract

Substantial differences in the niche and quality of plants, especially in cash crops, are clearly observed in different phenological phases. Many plants have distinct phenological characteristics, yet the distribution patterns and secondary metabolites in plants at different growth stages are poorly understood. We examined the importance of environmental variables in phenological phases for plant niches and quality using 30 years of species spatial occurrence point data combined with phenological data and other environmental factors. First, we developed niche models for Scutellaria baicalensis Georgi to estimate the distributions of habitat suitability and spatial dynamics for five developmental stages. Our results suggested that some populations were lost when environmental factors in specific phenological stages were involved in modeling and that these environmental variables contributed more than 30 % of the total to species distribution modeling. The results of independent phenological niche modeling illustrated the spatial variation dynamics of S. baicalensis, and 22.88 % of the potential distribution areas were consistent among the five phenological periods. Additionally, we considered the impact of environmental variables in five growth stages on quality. Six environmental variables (maximum temperature during the flowering period, maximum temperature during the blooming period, maximum temperature during the fruiting period, phenological precipitation during the fruiting period, precipitation standard deviation during the fruiting period, and phenological precipitation during the withering period) played pivotal roles in the formation of secondary metabolites and affected the spatial distribution of plant quality. Our study demonstrates the importance of phenological phases and highlights that they should be considered if plants have distinct phenological signatures. In regard to cultivation and management, our results provide decision-makers with an integrative approach for planning the rational allocation of resources used to obtain medicinal plants.