Spatial distribution of Zika in Honduras during 2016-2017 using geographic information systems (GIS) - Implications for public health and travel medicine.

Lysien I Zambrano,Jorge Alberto Valle-Reconco,Walter O Vasquez-Bonilla,Jorge A Sánchez-Duque,José Cláudio Da Silva,John D England,Marco Tulio Medina,Itzel Carolina Fuentes-Barahona,Alfonso J Rodríguez-Morales

doi:10.1016/j.tmaid.2019.01.017

Abstract

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has significantly affected Latin America in 2015-2017. Most studies have been reported from Brazil and Colombia, and only a few from Central America. For these reasons, we analyzed the incidence, incidence rates and evolution of cases in Honduras from 2016 to 2017. Using epidemiological weeks (EW) surveillance data on the ZIKV epidemics in Honduras, we estimated incidence rates (cases/100,000 population), and developed maps at national, departmental and municipal levels. From 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2017, a total of 32,607 cases of ZIKV were reported (98.5% in 2016 for an incidence rate of 36.85 cases/100,000 pop; 1% confirmed by RT-PCR). The highest peak was reached on the EW 6°, 2016 (2559 cases; 29.34 cases/100,000 pop). The department with the highest number of cases and incidence rate was Cortés (13,128 cases, 791.08 cases/100,000 pop in 2016). The pattern and evolution of ZIKV infection in Honduras have been similar to that which occurred for chikungunya in 2015. As previously reported, infection with chikungunya involved predominantly the central and capital area of the country, reaching incidences there >750 cases/100,000 pop. Studies using geographical information systems linked with clinical disease characteristics are necessary to attain accurate epidemiological data for public health systems. Such information is also useful for assessment of risk for travelers who visit specific areas in a destination country.

Highlights

During the last few years, a significant number of unexposed tropical and subtropical geographic areas has been threatened by an unprecedented explosion of emerging arboviral outbreaks [1], due to a number of factors such as climate change [2, 3], increasing international travel, foreign trade [4, 5], susceptible geographical areas, among other factors [6,7,8,9,10]
From January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2017, a total of 32,607 cases of Zika were reported
Pattern and evolution of Zika in Honduras has been like those that occurred for chikungunya in 2015, that we analyzed and previously reported, affecting predominantly the central and capital area of the country, reaching high incidences there >750 cases/100,000 pop

Summary

Introduction

During the last few years, a significant number of unexposed tropical and subtropical geographic areas has been threatened by an unprecedented explosion of emerging arboviral outbreaks [1], due to a number of factors such as climate change [2, 3], increasing international travel, foreign trade [4, 5], susceptible geographical areas, among other factors [6,7,8,9,10]. ZIKV-associated Guillain–Barré Syndrome reporting an analysis of the surveillance of both conditions between April 1, 2015, to March 31, 2016 [21]; and some case reports about neurological complications such as the sensory polyneuropathy [22]. Besides that, these have highlighted the relevant source of imported cases to other countries overseas, given the touristic attractions in the country, including the Roatán and the Bay Islands [17,18,19]. For these reasons we analyzed the incidence, incidence rates and evolution of cases of Honduras during 2016-2017

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Methods

Results

Conclusion