Spatial distribution of tuberculosis and its association with meteorological factors in mainland China

Yingjie Zhang,Weimin Li,Endawoke Amsalu,Wei Ma,Yuan Ma,Xiuhua Guo,Qihuan Li,Songwang Wang,Yue Liu,Xia Li,Hui Jiang,Wei Feng,Mengyang Liu,Junjie Zhang,Wei Wang,Samuel S Wu

doi:10.1186/s12879-019-4008-1

Abstract

BackgroundThe incidence of tuberculosis (TB) remains high worldwide. Current strategies will not eradicate TB by 2035; instead, by 2182 is more likely. Therefore, it is urgent that new risk factors be identified.MethodsAn ecological study was conducted in 340 prefectures in China from 2005 to 2015. The spatial distribution of TB incidence was shown by clustering and hotspot analysis. The relationship between the distribution patterns and six meteorological factors was evaluated by the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model.ResultsDuring the 11 years of the study period, TB incidence was persistently low in the east and high in the west. Local coefficients from the GWR model showed a positive correlation between TB incidence and yearly average rainfall (AR) but a negative correlation with other meteorological factors. Average relative humidity (ARH) was negatively correlated with the incidence of TB in all prefectures (p < 0.05).ConclusionMeteorological factors may play an important role in the prevention and control of TB.

Highlights

The incidence of tuberculosis (TB) remains high worldwide
Biological research suggests that a temperature of 37 °C and sufficient oxygen and water are favoured for the propagation of M. tuberculosis, but the pathogen is very sensitive to ultraviolet (UV) light, which is found in sunlight [12]
Date sources All TB patients were from the Infectious Disease Reporting System (IDRS) and the Tuberculosis Information Management System (TBIMS) from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) [13, 14], which covers 99.6% of land area of China, including 340 prefectures (Fig. 1)

Summary

Introduction

The incidence of tuberculosis (TB) remains high worldwide. Current strategies will not eradicate TB by 2035; instead, by 2182 is more likely. If we rely only on the original strategy, the global TB epidemic, including China’s epidemic, will not end by 2035, which is the aim of the World Health Organization (WHO)'s “End TB Strategy”. To complete this aim as early as possible, and to further improve the Chinese TB control strategy, we should pay attention to new or previously neglected risk factors, such as weather [8]. To further control TB incidence, we need to study the association between TB and meteorological factors from a narrower geographical area level.

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion