Spatial distribution dynamics and prediction of COVID‐19 in Asian countries: spatial Markov chain approach

Abstract

AbstractCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19), as a contagious disease, has negative externality and public policies are essential to control it. To provide control solutions, identifying the factors affecting the spread of COVID‐19 and its distribution dynamics are very important for policy‐makers. Although there have been many studies examining various factors affecting the spread of COVID‐19, there are research gaps on the distribution dynamics of COVID‐19, its future trend prediction with the current policies, and the effects of neighbours on the distribution dynamics of COVID‐19. Hence, this paper used the data published on the confirmed COVID‐19 cases (C‐COVID‐19) from 9 February 2020, to 27 July 2020, to investigate the spatial distribution dynamics of COVID‐19 and its prediction in 40 Asian countries. The Markov chain and the spatial Markov chain were used in this study. The results show that the COVID‐19 in Asia did not tend to zero with the current policies, and the neighbours had effects on the spread of COVID‐19. Therefore, policy‐makers should use co‐operative policies between countries instead of domestic monopoly policies.