Spatial distribution analysis and driving factors of traditional villages in Henan province: a comprehensive approach via geospatial techniques and statistical models

Abstract

Traditional villages are repositories for preserving human artifacts and cultural heritage. An investigation of the spatial distribution characteristics and factors influencing traditional villages in provincial administrative regions can provide new insights regarding the protection of traditional villages and rural development. This study focused on 275 traditional villages in Henan Province. Using ArcGIS and GeoDa software, we analysed the spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity of the nearest neighbour index, Gini coefficient, Moran’s I, and kernel density of the villages. Additionally, in conjunction with the Python sklearn library and GeoDetector, 15 indicators were selected to construct a decision tree model, spatial lag regression model, and geographic detector. Then the influence and interaction mechanisms of each indicator were analysed. The results revealed that (1) the spatial distribution of traditional villages in Henan Province was clustered and uneven, with a spatial layout comprising “3 high-density areas + 1 medium-density belt”; (2) overall, the number of traditional villages was negatively correlated with altitude, slope, rainfall, population density, proportion of the minority population, and historical-cultural intensity; and (3) the decision tree model results demonstrated that the selected 15 indicators had good predictive ability and that population density was particularly important. The spatial lag regression model results showed that the spatial distribution of traditional villages was positively correlated with distance from rivers, urbanization rate, and tourism resources, and negatively correlated with population density, per capita GRP, historical-cultural intensity, and NDVI. (4) The GeoDetector results indicated that historical-cultural intensity and population density were the two factors with the most significant explanatory power for the spatial differentiation of traditional villages in Henan Province. In terms of interactive factors, population density cap population was the strongest interactive driving force, followed by population cap historical-cultural intensity.