Spatial disintegration and arable land security in Egypt: A study of small- and moderate-sized urban areas

Abstract

While commonly associated with regional ‘mega-cities’, rapid urbanization in the less-developed world has also begun to define growth in small- and moderate-sized settlements on the periphery of major metropolitan areas. The dispersal of population growth to these smaller areas holds significant implications for environmental, economic, and social health, and threatens local food security, increases congestions, and induces difficulty in service provision. This study examines the effects of spatial disintegration and rapid urbanization in the stock of arable land in Egypt. To assess this issue, the study will meet three objectives. First, we evaluate the relationship between population growth and urban land cover expansion in small- and moderate-sized settlements in Egypt. Second, we consider the role of selected geographic determinants in influencing the growth of these areas through the use of a regression model. The selection of an appropriate model type is a sub-objective and will be discussed further. Third, these drivers of growth will be assessed through their effects on the country’s stock of arable land. These objectives will be met through the development and application of the regression models, in order to examine the relationship between urban land expansion and several independent variables. An increase in population is found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on corresponding urban land cover area. Surprisingly, the variables commonly associated with urbanization in Egypt – proximity to major roads, the capital of Cairo, and the Nile River – though exhibiting a positive relationship with urban growth, are not statistically significant in the selected case studies. This research underlines the necessity for a combined approach to policy formation – with input from policy fields as varied as agriculture, urban planning, and land reclamation – to slow outward growth and maintain arable land stocks.