Abstract
The rapid development of urbanization and industrialization in coastal China in the past 20 years has exerted a huge squeezing effect on agricultural land use. The phenomenon of non-grain production on cultivated land (NGP) is very common, seriously threatening the protection of high-quality arable land and national food security. In order to find out the overall situation regarding NGP on cultivated land in coastal China, this study revealed the spatial differentiation of NGP and its main driving factors by spatial autocorrelation analysis, multiple linear regression models and geographically weighted regression analysis (GWR). The results show that: (1) in 2018, the non-grain cultivated land area of 11 provinces along the coast of China was about 15.82 × 106 hm2, accounting for 33.65% of the total cultivated land area. (2) The NGP rate in 11 provinces gradually decreased from south to north, but the NGP area showed two peak centers in Guangxi province and Shandong province, then decreased gradually outwards. (3) The low economic benefit of the planting industry (per capita GDP and urban-to-rural disposable income ratio) was the most important driving force, leading to the spatial differentiation of NGP, while the number of rural laborers and land transfer areas also acted as the main driving factors for the spatial differentiation of NGP. However, the influence of each driving factor has obvious spatial heterogeneity. The non-grained area and the non-grain production rate at the municipal level were completely different from those at the provincial level, and the spatial heterogeneity was more prominent. In the future, the local government should control the disorganized spread of NGP, scientifically set the bottom line of NGP, reduce the external pressure of NGP, regulate multi-party land transfer behavior, and strengthen land-use responsibilities. This study can provide a scientific foundation for adjusting land-use planning and cultivated land protection policies in China and other developing countries.
Highlights
China has been in a stage of rapid industrialization and urbanization since 1990, resulting in the non-agriculturalization of 2.94 × 105 hm2 of cultivated land every year [1,2], which directly threatens food security in China
The area of non-grain production on cultivated land (NGP) in 2018 reached up to 15.82 × 106 hm2, which took up 33.65% of the total cultivation area
Of 2693 × 103 hm2 ); Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Tianjin and Liaoning can be classified as low-value units, among which Tianjin showed the lowest area of 79.1 × 103 hm2
Summary
China has been in a stage of rapid industrialization and urbanization since 1990, resulting in the non-agriculturalization of 2.94 × 105 hm of cultivated land every year [1,2], which directly threatens food security in China. In addition to the dominant loss of cultivated land, some high-yield cash crops are driven by economic interests, encouraging farmers to replace grain crops on a large scale [3]. The recessive loss of grain production capacity, referred to as NGP, should not be ignored. In 2019 alone, China’s grainplanted acreage dropped by 9.70 × 105 hm , which seriously threatened national food security and caused huge risks to rural social stability, the agricultural landscape and ecosystem health [4,5,6,7].
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