Abstract

Biomass fires in Indonesia emit high levels of greenhouse gases and particulate matter, key contributors to global climate change and poor air quality in south-east Asia. In order to better understand the drivers of biomass fires across Indonesia over multiple years, we examined the distribution and probability of fires in Sumatra, Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) and Papua (western New Guinea) over four entire calendar years (2002, 2005, 2011 and 2015). The 4 years of data represent years with El Niño and La Niña conditions and high levels of data availability in the study region. Generalised linear mixed-effects models and zero-inflated negative binomial models were used to relate fire hotspots and a range of spatial predictor data. Geographic differences in occurrences of fire hotspots were evident. Fire probability was greatest in mixed-production agriculture lands and in deeper, degraded peatlands, suggesting anthropogenic activities were strong determinants of burning. Drought conditions in El Niño years were also significant. The results demonstrate the importance of prioritising areas of high fire probability, based on land use and other predisposing conditions, in effective fire management planning.

Highlights

  • Biomass burning, the combustion of organic matter generally in the form of vegetation or the partially decomposed remains of plants that form peat, is a natural, if rare, phenomenon in tropical ecosystems in the absence of human activity

  • A smaller peak in fire hotspots during February was attributed to several provinces in northern Sumatra and north-west Kalimantan, which have two dry seasons

  • Our models indicate that fires occur in response to anthropogenic land use and cover and are in agreement with the findings of Vetrita and Cochrane (2020) based on MODIS satellite data for Sumatra and Kalimantan over the last two decades

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Summary

Introduction

The combustion of organic matter generally in the form of vegetation or the partially decomposed remains of plants that form peat, is a natural, if rare, phenomenon in tropical ecosystems in the absence of human activity. Seen an increase in the frequency and magnitude of major pantropical fires associated with human activity such as landuse changes, with some of the most severe biomass burnings occurring in peatlands in south-east Asia (Page and Hooijer 2016). Increasing pressure from humans coupled with climate change are likely to drive increases in biomass burning in the future and may lead to alternative stable states in which fires and fire-tolerant vegetation are the norm (Brando et al 2019). Especially in peatlands, is increasingly viewed as a priority for global climate change mitigation

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