Spatial cooperative simulation of land use-population-economy in the Greater Bay Area, China

Abstract

Fast urbanization brings great challenges to sustainable development goals, such as excessive exploitation and population explosion. Classical cellular automata (CA) have been widely used to independently simulate the change of spatial features, i.e. land use, population, economic production, etc. However, most CA models rely on historical data as static driving factors to simulate future scenarios while ignoring the inter-wined influences among multiple features in the development process. To address this issue, this study proposes a spatial cooperative simulation (SCS) approach to simulate the land use, population, and economy changes. The SCS approach starts with a separate CA model to obtain the initial scenes of each feature. Then, the simulation results of each other two features are used as dynamically updated driving factors, rather than the static historical data, to capture the inter-wined influence of multiple features during the development process. This step is iteratively performed until the changes of each feature converge and the final simulation results will be reported. The simulation experiment in Greater Bay Area demonstrates that the SCS approach can well capture the simultaneous development process and outperforms baseline approaches. The SCS approach is capable of forecasting future development scenarios and facilitates spatial planning and infrastructure synergies.